Annual Financial Report - 49 of 54

1   Includes liabilities under non-life insurance contracts.

2   Includes movement in liabilities relating to discretionary profit participation benefits due to policyholders arising from net unrealised investment gains recognised in other comprehensive income.

3   Includes amounts arising under reinsurance agreements.

The increase in liabilities to policyholders represents the aggregate of all events giving rise to additional liabilities to policyholders in the year. The key factors contributing to the movement in liabilities to policyholders include death claims, surrenders, lapses, liabilities to policyholders created at the initial inception of the policies, the declaration of bonuses and other amounts attributable to policyholders.

Accounting policy

Critical accounting estimates and judgements

Provisions

Further details of legal proceedings and regulatory matters are set out in Note 40, including the provisions made on foreign exchange rate investigations and litigation. Legal proceedings include civil court, arbitration or tribunal proceedings brought against HSBC companies (whether by way of claim or counterclaim) or civil disputes that may, if not settled, result in court, arbitration or tribunal proceedings. Regulatory matters refer to investigations, reviews and other actions carried out by, or in response to the actions of, regulators or law enforcement agencies in connection with alleged wrongdoing by HSBC.

Customer remediation refers to activities carried out by HSBC to compensate customers for losses or damages associated with a failure to comply with regulations or to treat customers fairly. Customer remediation is initiated by HSBC in response to customer complaints and/or industry developments in sales practices, and is not necessarily initiated by regulatory action.

Payment protection insurance

At 31 December 2014, a provision of US$1,079m (31 December 2013: US$946m) was held relating to the estimated liability for redress in respect of the possible mis-selling of payment protection insurance ('PPI') policies in previous years. An increase in provisions of US$960m was recognised during the year, primarily reflecting an increase in inbound complaints by claims management companies compared to previous forecasts. The current projected trend of inbound complaint volumes implies that the redress programme will be complete by the first quarter of 2018. However, this timing is subject to uncertainty as the trend may change over time based on actual experience.

Cumulative provisions made since the Judicial Review ruling in the first half of 2011 amounted to US$4.2bn of which US$3.2bn had been paid as at 31 December 2014.

The estimated liability for redress is calculated on the basis of total premiums paid by the customer plus simple interest of 8% per annum (or the rate inherent in the related loan product where higher). The basis for calculating the redress liability is the same for single premium and regular premium policies. Future estimated redress levels are based on historically observed redress per policy.

A total of approximately 5.4m PPI policies have been sold by HSBC since 2000, generating estimated revenues of US$4.3bn at 2014 average exchange rates. The gross written premiums on these polices was approximately US$5.6bn at 2014 average exchange rates. At 31 December 2014, the estimated total complaints expected to be received was 1.9m, representing 36% of total policies sold. It is estimated that contact will be made with regard to 2.3m policies, representing 42% of total policies sold. This estimate includes inbound complaints as well as HSBC's proactive contact exercise on certain policies ('outbound contact').

The following table details the cumulative number of complaints received at 31 December 2014 and the number of claims expected in the future:

1   Excludes invalid claims where the complainant has not held a PPI policy.

2   Claims include inbound and responses to outbound contact.

The main assumptions involved in calculating the redress liability are the volume of inbound complaints, the projected period of inbound complaints, the decay rate of complaint volumes, the population identified as systemically mis-sold and the number of policies per customer complaint. The main assumptions are likely to evolve over time as root cause analysis continues, more experience is available regarding customer initiated complaint volumes received, and we handle responses to our ongoing outbound contact.

A 100,000 increase/decrease in the total inbound complaints would increase/decrease the redress provision by approximately US$222m at 2014 average exchange rates. Each 1% increase/decrease in the response rate to our outbound contact exercise would increase/decrease the redress provision by approximately US$13m.

In addition to these factors and assumptions, the extent of the required redress will also depend on the facts and circumstances of each individual customer's case. For these reasons, there is currently a high degree of uncertainty as to the eventual costs of redress.

Interest rate derivatives

At 31 December 2014, a provision of US$312m (31 December 2013: US$776m) was held relating to the estimated liability for redress in respect of the possible mis-selling of interest rate derivatives in the UK. The provision relates to the estimated redress payable to customers in respect of historical payments under derivative contracts, the expected write-off by the bank of open derivative contract balances, and estimated project costs. An increase in the provision of US$288m was recorded during the year, reflecting updated claims experience and the announcement by the FCA on 28 January 2015 of the extension of the scheme to 31 March 2015, and expectation of an additional population who will opt into the scheme following communications to affected customers.

The extent to which HSBC is ultimately required to pay redress depends on the responses of contacted and other customers during the review period and analysis of the facts and circumstances of each individual case, including consequential loss claims received. For these reasons, there is currently a high degree of uncertainty as to the eventual costs of redress related to this programme.

UK Consumer Credit Act

HSBC has undertaken a review of compliance with the fixed-sum unsecured loan agreement requirements of the UK Consumer Credit Act ('CCA'). US$379m has been recognised at 31 December 2014 within 'Accruals, deferred income and other liabilities' for the repayment of interest to customers, primarily where annual statements did not remind them of their right to partially prepay the loan, notwithstanding that the customer loan documentation did refer to this right. The cumulative liability to date is US$591m, of which payments of US$212m have been made to customers. There is uncertainty as to whether other technical requirements of the CCA have been met, for which we have assessed the contingent liability as up to US$0.9bn.

Brazilian labour, civil and fiscal claims

Within 'Legal proceedings and regulatory matters' above are labour, civil and fiscal litigation provisions of US$501m (2013: US$500m). Of these provisions, US$246m (2013: US$232m) was in respect of labour and overtime litigation claims brought by past employees against HSBC operations in Brazil following their departure from the bank. The main assumptions involved in estimating the liability are the expected number of departing employees, individual salary levels and the facts and circumstances of each individual case.

HSBC

HSBC's subordinated liabilities

Subordinated liabilities rank behind senior obligations and generally count towards the capital base of HSBC. Where applicable, capital securities may be called and redeemed by HSBC subject to prior notification to the PRA and, where relevant, the consent of the local banking regulator. If not redeemed at the first call date, coupons payable may step-up or become floating rate based on interbank rates.

Interest rates on the floating rate capital securities are generally related to interbank offered rates. On the remaining capital securities, interest is payable at fixed rates of up to 10.176%.

The balance sheet amounts disclosed below are presented on an IFRSs basis and do not reflect the amount that the instruments contribute to regulatory capital due to the inclusion of issuance costs, regulatory amortisation and regulatory eligibility limits prescribed in the grandfathering provisions under CRD IV.

HSBC's subordinated liabilities in issue