Investment Manager’s Period End Review

RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED

(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41996)

LEI 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47

18 January 2021

INVESTMENT MANAGER'S PERIOD END REVIEW

For the period ended 31 December 2020

The following review from the Investment Manager of Ruffer Investment Company Limited (the "Company") covers the six month period to 31 December 2020. This review is intended to give shareholders unaudited key performance indicators and a portfolio review in a timely fashion. The unaudited Interim Financial Statements for the period ended 31 December 2020 will be released in the usual manner prior to the end of March 2021.

Attached is a link to the Period End Review - http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9292L_1-2021-1-15.pdf

The Period End Review is also available via the Company's Investment Manager's website www.ruffer.co.uk. 

* Assumes reinvestment of dividends

** NAV per share as released on the London Stock Exchange

Investment Manager's report

Performance review

The share price return of 17.0% and the NAV return of 13.5% for the calendar year 2020 marks two consecutive years of good returns for shareholders (+23% in NAV performance over 2019 and 2020) following a lean period in the two years before that. For the six months to 31 December 2020 the NAV return was 6.4%.

What most people will find surprising about 2020 is that through a severe global recession, most assets ended up making money. This is hard to reconcile with the lived experience of 2020. Despite the rise in asset prices, the portfolio objective of preserving shareholder capital was thoroughly tested as we experienced the broadest possible range of market and economic environments. We often describe the Ruffer investment approach as 'all-weather' and there was certainly a wide variety of investment weather to deal with.

There were three distinct phases of market behaviour, each of which required a different asset mix to navigate successfully.

Source: Ruffer LLP, Factset

To illustrate this another way the portfolio appreciated by 4.2% in March when equities fell 15.1% and also appreciated by 5.2% in November which was the best month for equities since 1987.

Portfolio attribution

Attribution for the year 2020 tells only part of the story. What was important was not just what you owned, but when you owned it.

In order to hold onto the major positive contributions from gold, credit protection, US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) and option protection, we needed to add opportunistically and lock in gains at various points during the year. Similarly, while we lost money in equities over the year as a whole (too much cyclical exposure in Q1), timely additions in the middle of the year and a further rotation into cyclical stocks meant that this part of the portfolio performed strongly in the bounce in markets and vaccine announcement in November.

Within the equity book the standout stock has continued to be Ocado, rising 79% in 2020, 13% since 30 June and 774% since purchase. Three other notable successes were Fujitsu (+45% in 2020, +82% since purchase), Sony (+39% in 2020 and +271% since purchase) and Weiss Korea (+57% in 2020 and +138% since purchase).

Having been a drag in the first half of 2020 our positions in cyclical and value stocks were justified in the second half of the year as they acted as an offset to long duration assets and covid winners (gold and long dated index-linked bonds for us, technology and growth stock for many others). Stocks exposed to a 'v for vaccine' recovery have done well since purchase - notable contributions came from Cemex (+98%), Uber (+44%), Barratt Development (+42%) and Vinci (+42%). At the very end of the period under review the announcement of a post-Brexit trade deal benefited our position in domestic UK equities and the decision to add to this part of the portfolio in October. The reaction was more muted than we expected, but as the covid clouds start to clear we expect the discount on UK equities to narrow.

Portfolio changes

There was some profit taking in gold and trading in US TIPS as mentioned above and the equity weighting rose from c30% to c40%. As we reported in July, a portfolio of index-linked bonds, gold and cyclical/value stocks (which benefit from stimulated GDP growth) and a significant sprinkling of protection against market calamity looks to be the right mix for the current environment.

Ruffer Investment Company as at 31 December 2020

Although our cyclical/value stocks were strong immediately following the vaccine news, we must remember both the portfolio role they play and the longer-term context. These stocks are geared to improving economic prospects and rising interest rates - this is vital as the rest of the portfolio stands to benefit more from continued financial repression and poorer market and economic outcomes. Secondly, these types of stocks have underperformed growth and quality factors for a decade. If there is an extended rotation, which would rely upon improved economic growth, then the recent outperformance has much further to run.

One notable addition to the portfolio during November was bitcoin exposure. We gained our bitcoin exposure via the Ruffer Multi Strategies Fund and two proxy equities in Microstrategy and Galaxy Digital. At the period end the combined exposure of these was just over 3%. In the short period since investing both stocks are up more than 100% and bitcoin is up 90%.

Our rationale has been well publicised but briefly, we have a history of using unconventional protections in our portfolio. This is another example, a small allocation to an idiosyncratic asset class which we think brings something significantly different to the portfolio. Due to zero interest rates the investment world is desperate for new safe-havens and uncorrelated assets. We think we are relatively early to this, at the foothills of a long trend of institutional adoption and financialisation of bitcoin. Think of bitcoin's bad reputation as a risk premium - as we move through the process of normalisation, regulation, and institutionalisation, the compression of this premium can have a dramatic effect on the price. If we are wrong, bitcoin will return to the shadows and we will lose money - this explains why we have kept the position size small but meaningful.

Investment outlook

As we enter 2021 there is near consensus in financial markets on four things -

1      Covid-19 will be conquered by the vaccine

2      Central banks will keep printing money without limit

3      Governments will keep spending without limit

4      Valuations no longer matter because the winners and losers have been settled

But coming into 2020 there was near universal consensus that global growth would accelerate. The one thing that mattered in 2020, coronavirus, was on few people's radar. Most did not see it coming and markets were complacent to the risk. As Daniel Kahneman put it: "the correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising".

Given the unique blow to the economy and the co-ordinated shock-and-awe global response, it seems fair to conclude that the distribution of possible outcomes from here is wider than it has ever been. This makes a genuinely all-weather portfolio even more important.

The economy

It now seems we are in a K-shaped recovery - that means winners and losers. The unique shape of the covid crisis and accompanying recession has meant some industries have thrived whilst others have suffered. What does the K mean? In caricature, everyone now uses Zoom and Peloton and offices and gyms are forced to close. Big beats small. The digital economy beats everything. Covid-19 acted as the Great Accelerator to a whole host of trends which were already in motion.

This applies to individuals as much as it does to companies. The rich have benefited from asset prices rising, access to cheap debt and more independence. Those less fortunate have faced job losses and managing precariously through a patchwork of government support.

The K is not OK because it leads to a hollowing out of the economy and, as we are observing, it will exacerbate inequality and cost far too many jobs. Despite the government schemes, the job losses dwarfed any historical comparison. Even after a significant recovery, US levels of unemployment are only just back to those levels seen at the trough of the global financial crisis.

It feels like we live in a world of two extremes - the real economy which has been severely wounded and a rose-tinted, utopian, liquidity-fuelled world in the financial economy.

Why does this matter? Because governments have a habit of bending to popular will and there are a lot of disenfranchised people as a result of covid-19 who are looking for someone/something to blame. Capitalism, big business, the rich - all seem to be probable targets who will have to 'pay their fair share'. Furthermore, because politicians can read the mood of voters too, this will ultimately lead to government intervention and antitrust. The first signs are showing with talk of student debt forgiveness, a $15 minimum wage in the US and a coming reckoning for Big Tech in the US.

The optimistic take on the current economic situation is, as governments have realised through necessity, that the frontiers of tolerable levels of government borrowing and spending are further out than previously thought. Those, including Ruffer, who have worried about the unsustainable debt dynamics are looking more wrong than ever. This is music to political and Keynesian ears and it is an invitation they won't need to be offered twice to get more active in 'investing in the economy'. Such a policy is entirely unsustainable if bond yields rise, hence the obsession by the authorities in keeping interest rates nailed to the floor.

We can layer on top of this unexpected debt headroom the possibility of significant pent-up demand. After the Spanish flu in 1918 came the roaring 20s. The combination of the First World War plus a pandemic meant that people had put their lives on pause. It is entirely possible that for many something similar has happened during covid - delayed weddings, cancelled holidays, etc. Might the animal spirits post-vaccine in mid-2021 catch us all by surprise? If so it seems plausible that bond yields will indeed rise and there will be upward pressure on prices.

A new investment regime

The question all investors need to be asking themselves today is 'why do I own conventional bonds?'

Bonds have been the cornerstone safe haven asset for investor portfolios since the creation of modern portfolio theory in the 1950s. As an asset class they have done a fantastic job, delivering strong returns and crucially acting as a wonderful portfolio offset. This is because bonds have gone up at times of stress when riskier assets in portfolios have fallen. They have been a hedge, but one with significant positive carry - the holy grail! But from here - with yields as low as they are - it is hard to see why anyone would own them. What do they add to your portfolio?

Bond prices are not just at record highs. They now offer guaranteed negative returns before considering inflation. As Jim Grant famously observed: "they have gone from risk free return, to return free risk." This has not escaped the notice of investors, which is why they have taken on more credit risk in order to achieve required yields and branched into assets outside traditional fixed income markets. These bond proxies (think infrastructure, renewable energy projects, property, private credit, defensive equities) are now exposed to the same risks as conventional bonds.

Looking at the total stock of global negative yielding debt outstanding, investors are prepared to hold around $18tn worth of bonds knowing full well they will get back less than their original investment if held to maturity. Only 15% of the entire world bond market yields more than 2%.

At best, this is a bubble in pessimism. Are asset allocators so devoid of good ideas they will guarantee a small loss at the risk of anything worse happening? At worst, this is the tyranny of benchmarking writ large as 'investors' paint by numbers into assets guaranteeing losses.

But bonds are a mathematically bounded asset class - from here the 'bond math' is challenging. In the US the ten year bond yield would have to fall to -0.7% to offset a 10% fall in the S&P 500 in a typical 60/40 portfolio. This is possible, but not likely, and anything worse than a 10% fall in the equity market would require even more sharply negative yields.

It is worth drawing on a recent example - had you held 10 year German bunds from 2019 through the covid crash you would have lost money. That is to say that through the sharpest, deepest recession in recorded history you lost money in one of the ultimate safe-haven conventional government bonds.

For these reasons we do not hold conventional government bonds in the Company. Inflation-linked bonds offer a different opportunity as explained below.

The big question - how do we pay for all this?

Regardless of how the economy recovers from the pandemic, we can say for sure that western societies will come out of this carrying significantly more debt than before. The need to address this issue has become a necessity. Step 1 is to ensure that borrowing costs are kept as low as possible. Step 2 is to look at ways to start deleveraging. We all know that austerity is politically toxic and ineffective. Growing our way out of this bind is vanishingly unlikely given that it hasn't worked for at least the last half a century. While default will always be the nuclear option to be avoided at all costs, history does show us that a default via the back door of inflation is both the most effective 'solution' and the most politically palatable. In the current situation this option also has the added political benefit of appeasing the social pressure to address wealth inequality. Financial repression (interest rates below the rate of inflation) rewards the have-nots of society at the expense of the haves. Debt is inflated away and asset values typically fall.

Conventional bonds offer no protection in this scenario and equities tend to perform poorly when inflation starts to pick up materially. Our belief is that a combination of index-linked bonds, gold and some digital currency will offer protection.

Summary

We are moving into a new investment regime in the post-covid world. As ever in a regime change, there will be individual winners and losers, but perhaps more importantly the investment template from the previous regime is unlikely to work (aka driving with the rear view mirror). Our key takeaways are as follows -

1      Covid as the Great Accelerator - many existing trends have been amplified. Of these the greatest threat to investors is the necessity of financial repression to pay for past debts.

2      The negative bond/equity correlation trade may be over - conventional portfolios are riskier than they appear through back-testing scenarios.

3      Expect the unexpected - a genuinely all-weather portfolio is going to be essential.

4      Beware the duration trade - many different assets have benefited from falling bond yields. A mix of cyclical equities and interest rate options gives you a genuine diversifier.

Faced with these challenges our job is to construct a portfolio for the Company which will protect and grow our investors' capital in a wide variety of market scenarios. Constructing a genuinely diversified portfolio has never been more challenging, but the results from this year, where we have experienced the full spectrum of market scenarios, is encouraging. On the protective side we have exposure to anti-assets like credit default swaps, index-linked bonds, gold, bitcoin or expressions of volatility. These are assets which, in isolation, may make traditional investors uncomfortable, but through the prism of the whole portfolio can be true diversifiers. On the growth side, if policy makers and vaccine producers are successful in facilitating a re-opening and nominal GDP growth then cyclical equities, those geared into the economic recovery, will be the place to be. We saw the first hint of this trend in November.

Portfolio statement

as at 31 December 2020 (unaudited)

* Ruffer Protection Strategies International and Ruffer Illiquid Multi Strategies Fund 2015 Ltd are classed as related parties as they share the same Investment Manager (Ruffer AIFM Limited) as the Company. LF Ruffer Gold Fund and Ruffer SICAV Global Smaller Companies Fund are also classed as related parties as their investment manager (Ruffer LLP) is the parent of the Company's Investment Manager.

Appendix

Regulatory performance data

† From July 2004

Source: Ruffer, Thomson Datastream, FTSE International (FTSE)†. Please note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The value of the shares and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount originally invested. The value of overseas investments will be influenced by the rate of exchange. Calendar quarter data has been used up to the latest quarter end. Ruffer LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

This document, and any statements accompanying it, are for information only and are not intended to be legally binding. Unless otherwise agreed in writing, our investment management agreement, in the form entered into, constitutes the entire agreement between Ruffer and its clients, and supersedes all previous assurances, warranties and representations, whether written or oral, relating to the services which Ruffer provides.

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Enquiries: 

Praxis Fund Services Limited

Shona Darling

DDI: +44(0)1481 755528

Email: [email protected]