- Title:
Annual Financial Report - NatWest Markets NV - Time:
07:04:40 - Date:
19 Feb 2021 - Category:
Results - ID:
7046P
NatWest Group plc 19 February 2021
NatWest Markets N.V. 2020 ARA
NatWest Markets N.V. today announces the publication of its 2020 Annual Report and Accounts. This company is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NatWest Markets Plc. The 2020 Annual Report and Accounts for NatWest Markets N.V. is available on NatWest Group plc's website at https://investors.natwestgroup.com/reports-archive
For further information, please contact
Investor Relations
+44 207 672 1758
Media Relations
+44 131 523 4205(UK)
+31 20 464 1150 (NL)
19 February 2021
For the purpose of compliance with the Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules, this announcement also contains risk factors extracted from the Annual Report and Accounts 2020 in full unedited text. Page references in the text refer to page numbers in the Annual Report and Accounts 2020.
Principal Risks and Uncertainties
Set out below are certain risk factors that could adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's future results, its financial condition and prospects and cause them to be materially different from what is forecast or expected, and directly or indirectly impact the value of its securities in issue. These risk factors are broadly categorised and should be read in conjunction with other sections of this annual report, including the forward-looking statements section and the risk and capital management section. They should not be regarded as a complete and comprehensive statement on its own of all potential risks and uncertainties facing NWM N.V. Group. The current COVID-19 pandemic may exacerbate any of the risks described below.
Risks relating to the COVID-19 pandemic
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the UK, Dutch, European and global economies and financial markets and NWM N.V. Group's customers, as well as its competitive environment may continue to have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook.
In March 2020, the World Health Organization declared the spread of the COVID-19 virus a pandemic. Since then, many countries, including the UK (NatWest Group's most significant market) and The Netherlands have at times imposed strict social distancing measures, restrictions on non-essential activities and travel quarantines, in an attempt to slow the spread and reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Dutch economy, as well as the economy in most countries, went into recession in 2020 as measures were introduced to reduce the spread of the COVID-19 virus. Towards the end of 2020 and at the start of 2021 many restrictions were re-introduced and the Dutch Central Bank ((De Nederlandsche Bank) ('DNB')) forecasted that the COVID-19 pandemic in the coming years is likely to lead to higher unemployment, lower economic growth and a significantly increased government deficit. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant reductions in levels of personal and commercial activity, reductions in consumer spending, increased levels of corporate debt and, for some customers, personal debt, increased unemployment and significant market volatility in asset prices, interest rates and foreign exchange rates. It has also caused physical disruption and slow-down to global supply chains and working practices, all of which have affected NWM N.V. Group's customers.
Further waves of infection may result in further restrictions in affected countries and regions, including in The Netherlands. While vaccine treatment is currently being deployed, the pace of deployment and ultimate effectiveness is uncertain, and vaccines may fail to achieve immunisation that is significant within the population. Therefore, significant uncertainties remain as to how long the COVID-19 pandemic will last. Even when restrictions are relaxed, they may be re-imposed, sometimes at short notice if either immunisation is insufficient or new strains of the COVID-19 virus or other diseases develop into new epidemics or pandemics.
Significant uncertainties continue as to the extent of the economic contraction and the path and length of time required to achieve economic recovery.
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, central banks, governments, regulators and legislatures in the UK, in The Netherlands and elsewhere have announced historic levels of support and various schemes for impacted businesses and individuals including forms of financial assistance and legal and regulatory initiatives, including further reductions in interest rates. Whether or not these measures effectively mitigate the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on NWM N.V. Group, some of these measures, or further measures, such as negative interest rates, may also have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's business and performance.
There is no certainty as to how long such financial assistance and legal and regulatory initiatives may last, how they may evolve in the future and, how consumers and businesses may react to such initiatives. NWM N.V. Group's clients may be negatively impacted when such support schemes are scaled back and ultimately ended, which in turn could expose NWM N.V. Group to increased credit and counterparty risk.
In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic related uncertainties and the range of prudential regulatory support has made reliance on analytical models, planning and forecasting for NWM N.V. Group more complex and may result in uncertainty impacting the risk profile of NWM N.V. Group and/or that of the wider banking industry. The medium and long-term implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for NWM N.V. Group customers, and the UK, Dutch and global economies and financial markets remain uncertain and may continue to have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook.
The adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the credit quality of NWM N.V. Group's counterparties has increased NWM N.V. Group's exposure to counterparty risk, which may adversely affect its business, results of operations and outlook.
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have adversely affected (and may further affect) the credit quality of many of NWM N.V. Group's borrowers and other counterparties. As a result, NWM N.V. Group experienced (and may continue to experience) elevated exposure to credit risk and demands on its funding from, for example, customers and borrowers drawing down upon committed credit facilities.
If borrowers or counterparties default or suffer deterioration in credit quality, this increases impairment charges, credit reserves, write-downs and regulatory expected loss. An increase in drawings upon committed credit facilities may also increase NWM Plc's and/or its subsidiaries' - including NWM N.V. Group - risk weighted assets ('RWA'). If the NWM N.V. Group experiences losses and a reduction in future profitability, this is likely to affect the recoverable value of fixed assets, including deferred taxes, which may lead to further write-downs and, in turn, have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook.
NWM N.V. Group has applied an internal analysis of multiple economic scenarios (MES) together with the determination of specific overlay adjustments to inform its IFRS 9 ECL (Expected Credit Loss). The recognition and measurement of ECL is complex and involves the use of significant judgment and estimation. This includes the formulation and incorporation of multiple forward-looking economic scenarios into ECL to meet the measurement objective of IFRS 9. The ECL provision is sensitive to the model inputs and economic assumptions underlying the estimate. Going forward, NWM N.V. Group anticipates observable credit deterioration of a proportion of assets resulting in a systematic uplift in defaults, which is mitigated by those economic assumption scenarios being reflected in the Stage 2 ECL across portfolios, along with a combination of post model overlays in both wholesale and retail portfolios reflecting the uncertainty of credit outcomes. See also, 'Risk and capital management - Credit Risk'. A credit deterioration would also lead to RWA increases. Furthermore, the assumptions and judgments used in the MES and ECL assessment at 31 December 2020 may not prove to be adequate resulting in incremental ECL provisions for the NWM N.V. Group. As government support schemes reduce, defaults are expected to rise with more ECLs cases moving from Stage 2 to Stage 3.
Any of the above could have a material adverse effect on NWM Group's business, results of operations and outlook.
The COVID-19 pandemic may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's strategy and impair its ability to meet its targets and to achieve its strategic objectives.
In February 2020, NatWest Group outlined a Purpose-led Strategy (as defined below) which requires changes in the business of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group, including reductions in capital allocated to NWM Plc or its subsidiaries, including NWM N.V., its cost base and complexity. As part of the NWM Refocusing (as defined below), NWM Group has been setting a number of financial, capital and operational targets and expectations. The sudden and profound economic and social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the revised economic outlook challenge many of the fundamental assumptions behind its targets, especially on impairment levels and the impact of IFRS 9 (Financial Instruments) ('IFRS 9'), RWA reductions, loan growth and cost reductions, such that the relevant targets and expectations may no longer be achievable as planned and/or on the timelines projected, or at all. For example, the COVID-19 pandemic caused significant market volatility which temporarily increased NWM Group's (including NWM N.V. Group's) market risk and has caused RWA inflation, which may increase in the future.
Whilst NWM N.V. Group as part of NatWest Group, remains committed to its cost reduction targets, achieving the planned reductions in an environment affected by the COVID-19 pandemic will be more challenging and may require additional savings to be made in a manner that may increase certain operational risks and could impact productivity and competitiveness within NWM N.V. Group and which may have a material adverse effect on NWM Group's and NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook.
It is uncertain as to how the broader macroeconomic business environment and societal norms may be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic which is already resulting in several significant wider societal changes. For example, one of the most visible effects of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the impact on the most vulnerable groups of society, and concerns about systemic racial biases and social inequalities.
In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated existing economic trends that may radically change the way businesses are run and people live their lives. These trends include digitalisation, decarbonisation, automation, e-commerce, and agile working, each of which has resulted in significant market volatility in asset prices. There is also increasing investor, regulatory and customer adapt these changes and related climate, environmental, social, governance and other sustainability issues including workplace health, safety and wellbeing, diversity and inclusion, data privacy, workforce management, human rights and supply chain management. Any failure or delay by NWM N.V. Group to adopt its business strategy and to establish and maintain effective governance, procedures, systems and controls in response to these changes and to manage emerging climate, environmental, social and other sustainability-related risks and opportunities may have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's reputation, business, results of operations and outlook and the value of NWM N.V. Group's securities. See also, 'Any failure by NWM N.V. Group to implement effective and compliant climate change resilient systems, controls and procedures could adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's ability to manage climate-related risks' and 'A failure to adapt NWM N.V. Group's business strategy, governance, procedures, systems and controls to manage emerging sustainability-related risks and opportunities may have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's reputation, business, results of operations and outlook'.
The COVID-19 pandemic may also result in unexpected developments or changes in financial markets, the fiscal, tax and regulatory frameworks and consumer customer and corporate client behaviour, which could intensify competition in the financial services industry. If NWM N.V. Group is not able to adapt or compete effectively, it could experience loss of business, which in turn could adversely affect its business, results of operations and outlook.
The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened NWM N.V. Group's operational risks as many of its employees are working remotely which may also adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's ability to maintain effective internal controls.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as at 31 January 2021, many of NWM N.V. Group's employees have started, and continue to work remotely. This has increased reliance on NWM N.V. Group's IT systems that enable remote working and increased exposure to fraud, conduct, operational and other risks and may place additional pressure on NWM N.V. Group's ability to maintain effective internal controls and governance frameworks. The IT systems that enable remote working interface with third-party systems, and NWM N.V. Group could experience service denials or disruptions if such systems exceed capacity or if a third-party system fails or experiences any interruptions, all of which could result in business and customer interruption and related reputational damage, significant compensation costs, regulatory sanctions and/or a breach of applicable regulations. See also, 'NWM N.V. Group's operations are highly dependent on its complex IT systems (including those that enable remote working), and any IT failure could adversely affect NWM N.V. Group'.
Sustained periods of remote working may also negatively affect workplace morale. Whilst NWM N.V. Group has taken measures seeking to maintain the health, wellbeing and safety of its employees during the COVID-19 pandemic, these measures may be ineffective and could result in increased expenses and widespread illness could negatively affect staffing within certain functions, businesses or geographies. Certain areas of NWM N.V. Group also continue to experience workloads that are heavier than usual as a result of increased client requirements, or other related direct and indirect effects. Resources have been diverted from certain ordinary course activities, and regulatory and other change projects, including the implementation of NWM Refocusing, which may have implications for the execution of related deliverables and meeting regulatory and other deadlines (for example the DNB requires banks to incorporate climate-related risk into their governance and risk management arrangements). Operational difficulties as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which may affect NWM N.V. Group's external stakeholders (including clients), may result in challenges in managing daily cash and liquidity. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, compliance and conduct risk may also be heightened both as a result of internal and external factors. The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic may also necessitate changes in the remuneration of NWM N.V. Group employees, in particular at a senior level. For example, the European Banking Authority (EBA) issued a call to banks to assess their remuneration policies in line with the risks stemming from the economic situation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the European Central Bank ('ECB') recommended banks to be extremely moderate with regard to variable compensations (which recommendation was supported by the DNB).
Any of the above could impair NWM N.V. Group's ability to hire, retain and engage well qualified employees, especially at a senior level, which in turn may adversely impact NWM N.V. Group's ability to serve its clients efficiently, and impact productivity across NWM Group, including NWM N.V. Group. This could have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's reputation and competitive position and its ability to retain and attract critical staff or to retain and grow its business.
Any of the above could have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook.
The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic could affect NWM N.V. Group's ability to access sources of liquidity and funding, which may result in higher funding costs and failure to comply with regulatory capital, funding and leverage requirements.
Depending on the severity and duration of market volatility resulting from COVID-19 pandemic related uncertainties and the impact on capital and RWAs, NWM N.V. Group may be required to adapt its funding plan in order to satisfy its capital and funding requirements, which may have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group. In addition, impairments or other losses as well as increases to capital deductions may result in a decrease to NWM Plc's capital base, and/or that of its subsidiaries (including NWM N.V.). In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been relaxations on certain countercyclical buffer requirements and stress tests, as well as the calculation of RWAs and leverage, which may be reinstated in the future.
In addition, increased income as a result of higher levels of customer flow activity and balance sheet growth (as a result of increases in corporate deposits and derivative valuations) may not be sustained in the future. Furthermore, market volatility may result in increases to leverage exposure.
Any downgrading to the credit ratings and/or outlooks assigned to NatWest Group plc, NWM Plc, NWM N.V. or certain other NatWest Group entities and their respective debt securities as a result of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic could exacerbate funding and liquidity risk, and further changes may be possible and are uncertain in nature, which could have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook.
Strategic risk
NatWest Group is in the process of implementing its Purpose-led Strategy, which requires changes in the business and strategy of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group, and entails material execution, commercial and operational risks for NWM N.V. Group.
In February 2020, NatWest Group announced a new strategy, focused on becoming a Purpose-led business designed to champion potential, and to help individuals, families and businesses to thrive. NatWest Group aims to deliver this strategy, referred to as its 'Purpose-led Strategy', through: (i) four strategic priorities: 'supporting customers at every stage of their lives;' 'powered by innovation and partnerships;' 'simple to deal with'; and 'sharpened capital allocation;' and (ii) three areas of focus: climate change, enterprise and learning. This strategy requires changes in NWM Group's business, including an increased focus on serving NatWest Group's corporate and institutional customer base. NWM Group intends to achieve this by simplifying its operating model and technology platform, as well as reducing its cost base and capital requirements. Together, these initiatives are referred to as the 'NWM Refocusing'. The implementation of the Purpose-led Strategy is highly complex, and the changes required for both the Purpose-led Strategy and the NWM Refocusing are substantial, will be implemented over several years, and may not result in the expected outcome within the timeline and in the manner contemplated.
As part of its Purpose-led Strategy, NatWest Group has set a number of financial, capital and operational targets and expectations, both for the short term and throughout the implementation period. In addition to the NWM Refocusing, NatWest Group will require significant reductions to its wider cost base. In addition to requiring additional cost reductions within NWM Group, this could affect the cost and scope of NatWest Group's provision of services to NWM Group, which individually and collectively may impact NWM N.V. Group's competitive position and its ability to meet its other targets.
A part of the NWM Refocusing is the intended reduction in NWM Plc's level of risk RWAs through accelerating the exit of exposures and an optimisation of inefficient capital across NWM Group. The NWM Refocusing entails significant commercial, operational, legal and execution risks and is based on certain material assumptions that may prove to be incorrect should, for example, RWAs take longer to exit or are more costly to reduce than anticipated or not possible to exit at all. In addition, it is anticipated that NWM Group will generate operating losses over the course of the transition plan period and therefore NWM Group's capital levels will also decline. Moreover, it is anticipated that NWM Plc's capital ratios will be maintained, as the level of RWAs is anticipated to fall more quickly than capital levels. However, capital levels could decline at a faster pace than expected (with a corresponding effect on the capital ratios), should RWA exit costs or operating costs be higher than anticipated, revenues reduce relatively faster than costs as a result of execution issues or market conditions, or if NWM Plc and/or NWM N.V. have difficulties accessing the funding market on acceptable terms or at all (including if the legal entity credit ratings are negatively impacted). Should any of the above arise, additional management actions by NWM Group or NatWest Group may be triggered, which may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group. The implementation of the NWM Refocusing is also expected to result in material costs for NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group, and could be materially higher than anticipated, including due to material uncertainties and factors outside of NWM Group's and NWM N.V. Group's control, or could be phased or could progress in a manner other than currently expected.
The NWM Refocusing is highly complex and NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group may not be able to successfully implement all aspects of it or reach any or all of the related targets or expectations within the timeframes contemplated, or at all. More generally, the targets and expectations that accompany the NWM Refocusing are based on management plans, projections and models, and are subject to a number of key assumptions and judgments, any of which may prove to be inaccurate. The scale and scope of the intended changes present material and increased operational, IT system, culture, conduct, business and financial risks to NWM Group, including NWM N.V. Group, especially during the planning and implementation period. The NWM Refocusing may also create increased people risk through the loss of key staff, the recalibration of roles and loss of institutional knowledge. This, combined with the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, may impact NWM N.V. Group's culture and morale. The NWM Refocusing is resource-intensive and disruptive, and will divert management resources, adding to the challenge for the new senior management team of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group. In addition, the scale of changes being concurrently implemented will require the implementation and application of robust governance and controls frameworks and robust IT systems. There is a risk that NWM N.V. Group may not be successful in doing so.
The focus on meeting cost reduction targets requires head-count reductions and may also result in limited investment in other areas which could affect NWM Group's (including NWM N.V. Group) long-term prospects, product offering or competitive position and its ability to meet its other targets and commitments. A significant proportion of the cost savings are dependent on simplification of the IT systems and therefore may not be realised in full if IT capabilities are not delivered in line with assumptions. These risks will be present throughout the period of refocusing and alignment, which is expected to last for the medium term.
Each of these risks could jeopardise the delivery and implementation of the NWM Refocusing, result in higher than expected costs, impact NWM N.V. Group's products and services offering or office locations, reputation with customers or business model and adversely impact NWM Group's (including NWM N.V. Group) ability to deliver its strategy and meet its targets and guidance, any of which could in turn have a material adverse impact on NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook. The NWM Refocusing envisages a smaller scaled business and its successful implementation expected to result in substantially lower revenues.
As a result, there can be no certainty that the NWM Refocusing will be successfully executed, that NWM N.V. Group will meet targets and expectations, or that the refocused NWM N.V. Group will be a viable, competitive business aligned to NatWest Group's corporate and institutional customer offering.
As part of the NWM Refocusing, NWM Group has set a number of financial, capital and operational targets and expectations including for NWM N.V. Group. These include (but are not limited to) expectations relating to reductions in RWAs and the timing thereof, and CET1 ratio.
The implementation of the NWM Refocusing is currently underway but is highly complex and NWM N.V. Group's ability to meet associated targets and expectations is subject to various internal and external factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, market, regulatory, economic and political uncertainties, operational risks, insufficient cost reduction plans, risks relating to NatWest Group's, NWM Group's and NWM N.V. Group's business models and strategies and delays or difficulties in implementing the NWM Refocusing. The successful implementation of the NWM Refocusing also depends on how the NWM Refocusing is perceived by NWM N.V. Group, its customers, regulators, rating agencies, stakeholders and the wider market, how that impacts its business, and NWM N.V. Group's ability to retain employees required to deliver the transition and its go-forward strategic priorities.
Revenues will be negatively impacted, and the implementation may be more difficult or expensive than expected. Costs relating to the NWM Refocusing may also be higher than anticipated. The orderly run-down of certain of NWM Group's (including NWM N.V. Group's) portfolios and the targeted reduction of its risk-weighted assets will be accompanied by the recognition of disposal losses which may be higher than anticipated, including due to future stresses which may place NWM N.V.'s capital ratios under pressure. Furthermore, regulatory pressures or changes in the economic and political and regulatory environment in which NWM N.V. Group operates or regulatory uncertainty or economic volatility, including (but not limited to) as a result of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and continued uncertainty surrounding the terms of the UK's future trading arrangements with the EU, or changes in the scale and timing of policy responses on climate change, may require NWM N.V. Group to adjust aspects of the NWM Refocusing or the timeframe for its implementation.
NWM Group's ability to serve its customers may be diminished by the implementation of the NWM Refocusing. In addition, customer reactions to the changed nature of NWM Group's business model may be more adverse than expected and previously anticipated revenue and profitability levels may not be achieved in the timescale envisaged or at all. An adverse macroeconomic environment, including due to the COVID-19 pandemic, sustained low interest rates, continued political and regulatory uncertainty and/or strong market competition may also pose significant challenges to the successful implementation of the NWM Refocusing and the achievement of its targets. The prolonged period of implementation and changed nature of NWM Group's business may also adversely affect the credit rating assigned to NWM Plc and certain of its subsidiaries (including NWM N.V.) or any of their respective debt securities, which could adversely affect the availability and cost of funding for NWM N.V. Group and negatively impact NWM N.V. Group's liquidity position.
Should NWM Group not be able to implement or execute the NWM Refocusing as contemplated, it may negatively impact revenues for NWM N.V. Group, its ability to meet targets and expectations and could lead to revisions to the NWM Refocusing strategy, including management actions by NatWest Group. Such changes and revisions could have an adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group and may affect its ability to be a viable and competitive business.
Economic and political risk
NWM N.V. Group faces market risk as a result of increased political and economic risks and uncertainty in the UK, European and global markets.
NatWest Group faces political uncertainty in Scotland as a result of a possible second Scottish independence referendum. Independence may impact NatWest Group plc and other NatWest Group entities (including NWM Plc being the parent company of NWM N.V.) being headquartered and/or incorporated in Scotland. Any changes to Scotland's relationship with the UK and/or the EU (as an indirect result of Brexit or other developments) would impact the environment in which NatWest Group and its subsidiaries operate, and may require further changes to NatWest Group (including the structure of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group), independently or in conjunction with other mandatory or strategic structural and organisational changes which could adversely impact NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group.
The value of NWM N.V. Group's financial instruments may be materially affected by market risk, including as a result of market fluctuations. Market volatility, illiquid market conditions and disruptions in the credit markets may make it extremely difficult to value certain of NWM N.V. Group's financial instruments, particularly during periods of market displacement. This could cause a decline in the value of NWM N.V. Group's financial instruments. This may have an adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's results of operations in future periods or cause inaccurate carrying values for certain financial instruments. Similarly, NWM N.V. Group trades a considerable amount of financial instruments (including derivatives) and volatile market conditions could result in a significant decline in NWM N.V. Group's net trading income or result in a trading loss.
In addition, financial markets are susceptible to severe events evidenced by rapid depreciation in asset values, which may be accompanied by a reduction in asset liquidity. Under these extreme conditions, hedging and other risk management strategies may not be as effective at mitigating trading losses as they would be under more normal market conditions. Moreover, under these conditions, market participants are particularly exposed to trading strategies employed by many market participants simultaneously and on a large scale, increasing NWM N.V. Group's counterparty risk. NWM N.V. Group's risk management and monitoring processes seek to quantify and mitigate NWM N.V. Group's exposure to more extreme market moves. However, severe market events have historically been difficult to predict and NWM N.V. Group could realise significant losses if extreme market events were to occur.
The outlook for the global economy over the medium-term remains uncertain due to a number of factors including: the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting societal inequalities and changes, trade barriers and the increased possibility and/or continuation of trade wars, widespread political instability (including as a result of populism and nationalism, which may lead to protectionist policies), an extended period of low inflation and low (or negative) interest rates, climate, environmental, social and other sustainability-related risks and global regional variations in the impact and responses to these factors. These conditions could be worsened by a number of factors including macro-economic deterioration, increased instability in the global financial system and concerns relating to further financial shocks or contagion (for example, due to economic concerns in emerging markets), market volatility or fluctuations in the value of, inter alia, the euro and the pound sterling, new or extended economic sanctions, volatility in commodity prices or concerns regarding sovereign debt. This may be compounded by the ageing demographics of the populations in the markets that NWM N.V. Group serves, increasing inequalities or rapid change to the economic environment due to the adoption of technology and artificial intelligence. Any of the above developments could adversely impact NWM N.V. Group directly (for example, as a result of credit losses) or indirectly (for example, by impacting global economic growth and financial markets and NWM N.V. Group's clients and their banking needs).
In addition, NWM N.V. Group is exposed to risks arising out of geopolitical events or political developments, such as trade barriers, exchange controls, sanctions and other measures taken by sovereign governments that may hinder economic or financial activity levels. Furthermore, unfavourable political, military or diplomatic events, including secession movements or the exit of other member states from the EU, armed conflict, pandemics and widespread public health crises (including the current COVID-19 pandemic and any future epidemics or pandemics, state and privately sponsored cyber and terrorist acts or threats, and the responses to them by governments and markets, could negatively affect the business and performance of NWM N.V. Group including as a result of the indirect effect on regional or global trade and/or on NWM N.V. Group's customers.
Continuing uncertainty regarding the effects of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union may continue to adversely affect NWM Plc (NWM N.V.'s parent company) and its operating environment and NatWest Group plc (NWM N.V.'s ultimate parent company) and may have an indirect effect on NWM N.V. Group.
After the 2016 EU Referendum, the UK ceased to be a member of the EU and the European Economic Area ('EEA') on 31 January 2020 ('Brexit'). The 2020 EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement ('TCA') ended the transition period on 31 December 2020 and provides for free trade between the UK and EU with zero tariffs and quotas on all goods that comply with the appropriate rules of origin. The TCA provides for minimal coverage for financial services; UK-incorporated financial services providers no longer have EU passporting rights and there is no mutual recognition regime. Financial services may largely be subject to individual equivalence decisions by relevant regulators. A number of temporary equivalence decisions have been made that cover all services offered by NWM Group (NWM N.V Group's parent). The EU's equivalence regime does not cover most lending and deposit taking, and determinations in respect of third countries have not, to date, covered the provision of investment services. In addition, equivalence determinations do not guarantee permanent access rights and can be withdrawn with short notice. The TCA is accompanied by a Joint Declaration on financial services, which sets out an intention for the EU and UK to cooperate on matters of financial regulation and to agree a Memorandum of Understanding by March 2021. There is no certainty, however, as to the form, scope and timing of any such Memorandum of Understanding.
NatWest Group has engaged in significant and costly Brexit planning and contingency planning. NatWest Group continues to monitor regulatory developments, and NatWest Group continues to seek advice on any transitional regimes being introduced by individual EU countries, including The Netherlands. It is updating its operating model accordingly. NatWest Group also continues to assess where NatWest Group companies can obtain bilateral regulatory permissions to permit business to continue from its UK entities, transferring what cannot be continued to be rendered from the UK to an EEA subsidiary. Where such regulatory permissions are temporary or are withdrawn, a different approach may need to be taken or may result in a change in operating model or some business being ceased. Not all NatWest Group entities have applied for bilateral regulatory permissions and instead intend to move EEA business to an EEA licenced subsidiary. There is a risk that such EEA licences may not be granted, and where these permissions are not obtained, further changes to the NatWest Group's operating model may be required or some business may need to be ceased. In addition, failure to obtain regulatory permissions in one part of the NatWest Group may impact other parts of the NatWest Group (including NWM N.V. Group) adversely. Certain permissions are required in order to maintain the ability to clear euro payments and others will allow NatWest Group to continue to serve non-UK EEA customers. Furthermore, transferring business to an EEA based subsidiary is a complex exercise and involves legal, regulatory and executional risks, and could result in a loss of business, customers or greater than expected costs. The changes to NatWest Group's operating model have been costly and further changes to its business operations, product offering and customer engagement could result in further costs. Any of the above could, in turn, negatively impact NWM N.V. Group.
NatWest Group previously announced that it had transferred the client relationship coverage of its Western European corporate portfolio to NWM N.V. Group. This was accompanied by the transfer of certain term funding and revolving credit facilities from NWB Plc to NWM N.V. Group. In light of NatWest Group's most recent Brexit planning and consistent with NatWest Group and NWM Group's - including NWM N.V. Group - strategies, NWM N.V. Group currently expects that certain parts of NatWest Group's Western European corporate portfolio may remain in NatWest Holdings Group and not be transferred to NWM Group and/or NWM N.V. Group. In addition, some or all of this portfolio already held in NWM N.V. Group may be transferred back to NatWest Holdings Group. The timing and quantum of any such transfers is uncertain and NWM N.V. Group can give no assurance as to the full impact of such transactions on its go-forward results of operations. As a result, NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook could be adversely affected.
The effects of the UK's exit from the EU and the EEA are expected to continue to affect many aspects of the business and operating environment of NatWest Group, including NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group, including as described elsewhere in these risk factors, and may be material and/or cause a near-term impact on impairments.
The long-term effects of Brexit on the operating environment of NatWest Group, including NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group, are difficult to predict. They may be impacted by wider global macro-economic trends and events, particularly COVID-19 pandemic related uncertainties, which may significantly impact NWM N.V. Group and its customers and counterparties who are themselves dependent on trading with the UK or personnel from the UK. They may exacerbate the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the UK, The Netherlands, the Republic of Ireland ('ROI') and the rest of EU/EEA.
Significant uncertainty remains as to the extent to which EU/EEA laws will diverge from UK law (including bank regulation), whether and what equivalence determinations will be made by the various regulators and therefore what respective legal and regulatory arrangements will be, under which NWM Group and its subsidiaries (including NWM N.V. Group) will operate. The legal and political uncertainty and any actions taken as a result of this uncertainty, as well as new or amended rules, could have a significant adverse impact on NWM Group's businesses and non-UK operations and/or legal entity structure, including NWM N.V. Group, including attendant operating, compliance and restructuring costs, level of impairments, capital requirements, regulatory environment and tax implications and as a result may adversely impact the profitability, competitive position, business model and product offering of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group.
Changes in interest rates have affected and will continue to affect NWM N.V. Group's business and results.
Interest rate risk exists for NWM N.V. Group. Monetary policy has been accommodative in recent years including initiatives implemented by the ECB such as its corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP), which helped to support demand at a time of pronounced fiscal tightening and balance sheet repair. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to the future direction of interest rates and pace of change (as set by the ECB) and other major central banks) including as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and its effect on the UK and Dutch economy as well as the general Dutch political or economic climate. Further decreases in interest rates and/or continued sustained low or negative interest rates would be expected to continue to put further pressure on NWM N.V. Group's interest income and profitability.
Conversely, while increases in interest rates may support NWM N.V. Group interest income, sharp increases in interest rates could have macroeconomic effects that lead to adverse outcomes for NWM N.V. Group's business. For example, they could lead to generally weaker than expected growth, or even contracting GDP, reduced business confidence and higher levels of unemployment or underemployment, all of which could adversely affect the business and performance of NWM N.V. Group.
HM Treasury (or UKGI on its behalf) could exercise a significant degree of influence over NatWest Group and NWM N.V. Group is ultimately controlled by NatWest Group plc.
In November 2019, NWM Plc acquired RBS Holdings N.V. ('RBSH'), NWM N.V.'s immediate parent, from RFS Holdings B.V. ('RFSH'). All entities are wholly owned by NatWest Group plc. As such, NatWest Group plc is the ultimate parent company of NWM N.V.
In its March 2020 Budget, the UK Government announced its intention to continue the process of privatisation of NatWest Group plc and to carry out a programme of sales of NatWest Group plc ordinary shares with the objective of selling all of its remaining shares in NatWest Group plc by 2025. On 6 February 2019, NatWest Group plc obtained shareholder authority to make off-market purchases of its ordinary shares from HM Treasury under the terms of a directed buyback contract. The authority provided by this contract was renewed at NatWest Group's Annual General Meeting on 29 April 2020. As of 31 December 2020, the UK Government held 61.9% of the issued ordinary share capital of NatWest Group plc. There can be no certainty as to the continuation of the sell-down process or the timing or extent of such sell-downs.
HM Treasury has indicated that it intends to respect the commercial decisions of NatWest Group and that NatWest Group entities (including NWM N.V. Group) will continue to have its own independent board of directors and management team determining their own strategy. However, HM Treasury, as majority shareholder, and UK Government Investments Limited ('UKGI'), as manager of HM Treasury's shareholding, could exercise a significant degree of influence over the election of directors and appointment of senior management, NatWest Group's (including NWM N.V. Group's) capital strategy, dividend policy, remuneration policy or the conduct of NatWest Group's (including NWM N.V. Group's) operations and other things. HM Treasury or UKGI's approach depends on government policy, which could change, including as a result of a general election. The exertion of such influence over NatWest Group could in turn have an adverse effect on the governance or business strategy of NWM N.V. Group.
In addition, as a wholly owned subsidiary of NWM Plc (and ultimately NatWest Group plc), NWM Plc and NatWest Group plc control NWM N.V. Group's board of directors, corporate policies and strategic direction. The interests of NatWest Group plc as an equity holder and as NWM N.V. Group's ultimate parent may differ from the interests of NWM N.V. Group or of potential investors in NWM N.V. Group's securities.
Financial resilience risk
NWM N.V. Group is subject to transfer pricing arrangements with NWM Plc (NWM N.V.'s its parent company). Arm's length transfer pricing legislation in both The Netherlands and UK requires that, for transactions between related parties, each entity is rewarded on the same basis as two independent parties negotiating a contract covering the same activities. The transfer pricing arrangements between NWM N.V. and NWM Plc require approval by both counterparties and are subject to audit and/or assessment by Dutch and UK tax authorities. A significant portion of NWM N.V. Group's income derives from transfer pricing income received from NWM Plc. Should the level of such income change as a result of regulatory intervention or otherwise, this may have a material and adverse impact on NWM N.V. Group's profitability.
As part of NatWest Group's Purpose-led Strategy and the NWM Refocusing, NWM N.V. Group has set a number of internal and external financial, capital and operational targets including in respect of: balance sheet and cost reductions, CET1 ratio targets, (for NWM Plc and NWM N.V.) leverage ratio targets, targets in relation to local regulation, funding plans and requirements, management of risk weighted assets (RWAs) and the timing thereof, employee engagement, diversity and inclusion as well as environmental, social and customer satisfaction targets.
A number of factors, including the economic and other effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, may impact NWM Plc and NWM N.V.'s ability to maintain their current CET1 ratio targets, including impairments, the extent of organic capital generation or the reduction of RWAs. NWM N.V. may incur disposal losses as part of the process of exiting positions to reduce RWAs. Some of these losses may be recognised ahead of the actual disposals, and the losses overall may be higher than currently anticipated.
NWM N.V. Group's ability to meet its planned reductions in annual costs may vary considerably from year to year. Furthermore, the focus on meeting balance sheet and cost reduction targets may result in limited investment in other areas which could affect NWM N.V. Group's long-term product offering or competitive position and its ability to meet its other targets, including those related to customer satisfaction.
In addition, challenging trading conditions may have an adverse impact on NWM N.V. Group's business and may adversely affect its ability to meet its targets and expectations and successfully execute its strategy and become a viable, competitive or profitable banking business.
There is a risk that NWM N.V. Group's strategy may not be successfully executed, that it will not meet its targets and expectations, or that it will not be a viable, competitive or profitable banking business.
Prior to the implementation of the UK ring-fencing regime, NWM Plc (NWM N.V. being a wholly-owned subsidiary of NWM Plc) was NatWest Group's principal operating subsidiary. As a result of the implementation of the UK ring-fencing regime and the acquisition of NWM N.V., NWM Plc is now the principal operating company for most of NatWest Group's operations, including NWM N.V. Group, outside the ring-fence (excluding RBS International). The implementation of the UK ring-fencing regime had a significant impact on NWM Plc an NWM N.V. and required them to adapt their strategy, structure and business model and adopt processes and structures for, among other things, financial reporting, risk management and corporate governance. Ongoing compliance with the UK ring-fencing rules is required.
NatWest Group is currently in the process of implementing its Purpose-led Strategy, which includes the NWM Refocusing. The implementation of this strategy has required and is expected to continue to require changes to the business and operations of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group in the medium and long term and entails material execution, commercial and operational risks for NWM N.V. Group. Additional changes to NWM N.V. Group's business and structure may be required. See also, 'NatWest Group is in the process of implementing its Purpose-led Strategy, which requires changes in the business and strategy of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group, and entails material execution, commercial and operational risks for NWM N.V. Group' and 'NWM Group (including NWM N.V. Group) may not be able to successfully implement the NWM Refocusing and it may not achieve its targets and NWM Group (including NWM N.V. Group) may not ultimately result in a viable, competitive business'.
NWM N.V. Group has implemented a shared services model with the ring-fenced entities for certain services, the execution of which is subject to various internal and external factors and risks, including the implementation of the NWM Refocusing. Moreover, NWM N.V. Group has entered into revenue share agreements and cost recharge agreements with some entities within NatWest Group's ring-fenced sub-group (including NatWest Bank Plc and Ulster Bank Ireland DAC) as well as with a non-ring-fenced entity (RBS International). It has also entered into certain transfer pricing arrangements, funded guarantee agreements and revenue sharing agreements with NWM Plc in relation to certain EEA customer transfers and Western European transfers. See also, 'NWM Group, including NWM N.V. Group, may not meet the targets it communicates to the market, generate returns or implement its strategy effectively'.
Following NWM Plc's acquisition of RBS Holdings N.V. and its wholly-owned subsidiary, NatWest Markets N.V. in 2019, these entities are now part of NWM Group, introducing additional risks, including in respect of: foreign exchange exposure, counterparty and borrower risk, Brexit risk (due to potential changes in regulatory approach following Brexit), operational and business risk.
There can be no certainty that NWM N.V. Group will be a viable, competitive or profitable banking business.
As part of NatWest Group's strategy, NWM N.V. is NatWest Group's banking and trading entity located in The Netherlands serves EEA customers, and became a NWM Plc subsidiary in November 2019. The banking licence of NWM N.V. was repurposed for which purpose a declaration of non-objection (DNO) was received from the DNB. Approval from the DNB is required for material changes to NWM N.V.'s operating model. In addition, although the head office for NWM N.V. is located in Amsterdam, NWM N.V. Group also operates branches in UK, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Sweden.
As a subsidiary of NWM Plc (and ultimately NatWest Group plc), NWM N.V. utilises a number of NWM Group and NatWest Group systems, policies and frameworks (via a shared services model) including in relation to: technology (including innovation) and network infrastructure, marketing, risk frameworks, financial accounting systems, reporting, on-boarding processes, model development and validation, certain administrative and legal services and governance. In addition, the products that NWM N.V. offers are based on those offered by NWM Plc. See also, 'Operational risks (including reliance on third party suppliers and outsourcing of certain activities) are inherent in NWM N.V. Group's businesses'. As such, any changes made to systems, policies, frameworks or products of NatWest Group or NWM Group may have a corresponding adverse effect on NWM N.V.
A number of the factors described above are outside the control of NWM N.V., and should changes be made, there may be a material and adverse impact on NWM N.V.'s profitability.
NWM N.V. Group is required by the DNB to maintain adequate financial resources. Adequate capital also gives NWM N.V. Group financial flexibility in the face of turbulence and uncertainty in the global economy and specifically in the core UK and European operations, such as in The Netherlands.
NWM N.V.'s 2021 target CET1 ratio is based on expected regulatory requirements, internal modelling and risk appetite (including under stress), taking into account the anticipated extent of transfers of certain parts of NatWest Group's Western European corporate portfolio. See also, 'Continuing uncertainty regarding the effects of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union may continue to adversely affect NWM Plc (NWM N.V.'s parent company) and its operating environment and NatWest Group plc (NWM N.V.'s ultimate parent company) and may have an indirect effect on NWM N.V. Group'.
As at 31 December 2020, NWM N.V. Group's CET1 ratio (on a consolidated basis) was 30.6%. NWM N.V.'s current capital strategy is based on the management of risk weighted assets (RWAs) and other capital management initiatives.
Other factors that could influence NWM N.V.'s CET1 ratio include, amongst other things (see also, 'NatWest Group is in the process of implementing its Purpose-led Strategy, which requires changes in the business and strategy of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group, and entails material execution, commercial and operational risks for NWM N.V. Group'):
· a depletion of NWM N.V.'s capital resources through losses (which would in turn impact retained earnings) and may result from revenue attrition or increased liabilities, sustained periods of low or lower interest rates, reduced asset values resulting in write-downs or reserve adjustments, impairments, changes in accounting policy, accounting charges or foreign exchange movements;
· a change in the quantum of NWM N.V.'s RWAs, stemming from exceeding target RWA levels, the continued implementation of the NWM Refocusing, regulatory adjustments (for example, from additional market risk backtesting exceptions) or foreign exchange movements. An increase in RWAs would lead to a reduction in the CET1 ratio;
· changes in prudential regulatory requirements including the Total Capital Requirement for NWM N.V. (as regulated by the DNB), including Pillar 2 requirements and regulatory buffers, as well as any applicable scalars;
· further developments of prudential regulation (for example, finalisation of Basel 3 standards), which will impact various areas including the approach to calculating credit risk, market risk, leverage ratio, capital floors and operational risk RWAs, as well as continued regulatory uncertainty on the details thereto;
· further losses (including as a result of extreme one-off incidents such as cyberattack, fraud or conduct issues) would deplete capital resources and place downward pressure on the CET1 ratio; or
· the timing of planned liquidation, disposal and/or capital releases of capital optimisation activity or legacy entities owned by NWM Plc and NWM N.V.
NWM N.V. Group is required to access sources of liquidity and funding through deposits and wholesale funding, including debt capital markets and trading liabilities (such as repurchase agreements). As at 31 December 2020 NWM N.V. Group held EUR 1.3 billion in deposits from banks and customers. The level of deposits and wholesale funding may fluctuate due to factors outside NWM N.V. Group's control. These factors include: loss of investor confidence (including in individual NWM N.V. Group entities, the European banking sector or the banking sector as a whole), sustained low or negative interest rates, increasing competitive pressures for bank funding or the reduction or cessation of deposits and other funding by counterparties, any of which could result in a significant outflow of deposits or reduction in wholesale funding within a short period of time. See also, 'NWM N.V. Group has significant exposure to counterparty and borrower risk.'
An inability to grow, roll-over, or any material decrease in, NWM N.V. Group's deposits, short-term wholesale funding and short-term liability financing could, particularly if accompanied by one of the other factors described above, materially affect NWM N.V. Group's ability to satisfy its liquidity needs.
NWM N.V. Group engages from time to time in 'fee based borrow' transactions whereby collateral (such as government bonds) is borrowed from counterparties on an unsecured basis in return for a fee. This borrowed collateral may be used by NWM N.V. Group to finance parts of its balance sheet, either in its repo financing business, derivatives portfolio or more generally across its balance sheet. If such 'fee based borrow' transactions are unwound whilst used to support the financing of parts of NWM N.V. Group balance sheet, then unsecured funding from other sources would be required to replace such financing. There is a risk that NWM N.V. Group would be unable to replace such financing on acceptable terms or at all, which could adversely affect its liquidity position and have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook. In addition, because 'fee base borrow' transactions are conducted off-balance sheet (due to the collateral being borrowed) investors may find it more difficult to gauge NWM N.V. Group's creditworthiness, which may be affected if these transactions were to be unwound in a stress scenario. Any lack of or perceived lack of creditworthiness may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group.
As at 31 December 2020, NWM N.V. Group reported a liquidity coverage ratio of 356% on a solo basis. If its liquidity position were to come under stress and if NWM N.V. Group is unable to raise funds through deposits or wholesale funding sources on acceptable terms or at all, its liquidity position could be adversely affected. This would mean that NWM N.V. Group might be unable to: meet deposit withdrawals on demand or satisfy, buy back requests, repay borrowings as they mature, meet its obligations under committed financing facilities, comply with regulatory funding requirements, undertake certain capital and/or debt management activities, or fund new loans, investments and businesses. NWM N.V. Group may need to liquidate unencumbered assets to meet its liabilities, including disposals of assets not previously identified for disposal to reduce its funding commitments or trigger the execution of certain management actions or recovery options. This could also lead to higher funding costs and/or changes to NWM N.V. Group's funding plans. In a time of reduced liquidity, or market stress, NWM N.V. Group may be unable to sell some of its assets, or may need to sell assets at depressed prices, which in either case could negatively affect NWM N.V. Group's results.
NWM N.V. Group independently manages liquidity risk on a stand-alone basis, including through holding its own liquidity portfolio. It has restricted access to liquidity or funding from other NatWest Group entities. As a result, NWM N.V.'s liquidity position could be adversely affected, which may also require unencumbered assets to be liquidated or may result in higher funding costs which may adversely impact NWM N.V. Group's margins and profitability. NWM N.V.'s management of its own liquidity portfolio and the structure of capital support are subject to operational and execution risk, as NWM N.V. is required to meet its own liquidity and capital requirements.
The risks described in the paragraphs above may have a negative effect on NWM N.V. Group's access to liquidity and funding, which could mean that NWM N.V. Group is required to adapt its funding plan and could adversely affect NWM N.V. Group.
Under the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive I and II ('BRRD'), as implemented in UK and The Netherlands, NWM N.V. Group must maintain a recovery plan acceptable to its regulator, such that a breach of NWM N.V.'s applicable capital or leverage, liquidity or funding requirements would trigger consideration of NWM N.V.'s recovery plan, and in turn may prompt consideration of NatWest Group's recovery plan. If, under stressed conditions, the liquidity, capital or leverage ratio were to decline, there are a range of recovery management actions (focused on risk reduction and mitigation) that NWM N.V. could undertake that may or may not be sufficient to restore adequate liquidity, capital and leverage ratios. Additional management options relating to existing capital issuances, asset or business disposals, capital payments and dividends from NWM Plc to its parent, could also be undertaken to support NWM N.V.'s capital and leverage requirements. NatWest Group may also address a shortage of capital in NWM N.V. by providing parental support to NWM N.V., subject to evidence that the conditions set out in Article 23 of the BRRD, as implemented into Dutch law in article 3:301 and 3:305 of the FMSA have been met. NatWest Group's and/or NWM N.V.'s regulator may also request that NWM N.V. Group carry out additional capital management actions. The Bank of England has identified single point-of-entry as the preferred resolution strategy for NatWest Group. However, under certain conditions set forth in the BRRD, as implemented by the FMSA, as the Dutch resolution authority, the DNB also has the power to execute the 'bail-in' of certain securities of NWM N.V. Group, which may include any notes, without further action at NatWest Group level.
Any capital management actions taken under a stress scenario may affect, among other things, NWM N.V. Group's product offering, credit ratings, ability to operate its businesses and pursue its current strategies and strategic opportunities as well as negatively impacting investor confidence and the value of NWM N.V. Group's securities. See also, 'NatWest Group (including NWM N.V.) may become subject to the application of statutory stabilisation or resolution powers which may result in, among other actions, the write-down or conversion of certain Eligible Liabilities (including NWM N.V.'s Eligible Liabilities)'. In addition, if NWM N.V.'s liquidity position were to be adversely affected, this may require unencumbered assets to be liquidated or may result in higher funding costs which may adversely impact NWM N.V. Group's operating performance.
Rating agencies regularly review NatWest Group plc, NWM Plc, NWM N.V. and other NatWest Group entity credit ratings and outlooks, which could be negatively affected by a number of factors that can change over time, including: the credit rating agency's assessment of NWM N.V. Group's strategy and management's capability; its financial condition including in respect of profitability, asset quality, capital, funding and liquidity; the level of political support for the industries in which NWM N.V. Group operates; the implementation of structural reform; the legal and regulatory frameworks applicable to NWM N.V. Group's legal structure; business activities and the rights of its creditors; changes in rating methodologies; changes in the relative size of the loss-absorbing buffers protecting bondholders and depositors; the competitive environment, political and economic conditions in NWM N.V. Group's key markets, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit and any further Scottish independence referendum; any reduction of the UK's sovereign credit rating and market uncertainty.
In addition, credit ratings agencies are increasingly taking into account sustainability-related factors, including climate, environmental, social and governance related risk, as part of the credit ratings analysis, as are investors in their investment decisions.
Any reductions in the credit ratings of NatWest Group plc, NWM Plc, NWM N.V. or of certain other NatWest Group entities, including, in particular, downgrades below investment grade, or a deterioration in the capital markets' perception of NWM N.V. Group's financial resilience could significantly affect NWM N.V. Group's access to money markets, reduce the size of its deposit base and trigger additional collateral or other requirements in derivatives contracts and other secured funding arrangements or the need to amend such arrangements, which could adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's (and, in particular, NWM N.V.'s) cost of funding and its access to capital markets which could limit the range of counterparties willing to enter into transactions with NWM N.V. Group (and, in particular, with NWM N.V.). This could in turn adversely impact NWM N.V. Group's competitive position and threaten its prospects in the short to medium-term.
The markets in which NWM N.V. Group operates are highly competitive, and competition may intensify in response to the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and other changes. These include evolving customer behaviour, technological changes, competitor behaviour, new entrants to the market, industry trends resulting in increased disaggregation or unbundling of financial services, the impact of regulatory actions and other factors. Innovations such as biometrics,
artificial intelligence, the cloud, blockchain, and quantum computing may also rapidly facilitate industry transformation.
Increasingly many of the products and services offered by NWM N.V. Group are, and will become, more technology intensive. NWM N.V. Group's ability to develop such services which also comply with applicable and evolving regulations has become increasingly important to retaining and growing NWM N.V. Group's client businesses across its geographical footprint. There can be no certainty that NWM N.V. Group's innovation strategy (which is based on NWM Group's strategy, and which includes investment in its IT capability intended to improve its core infrastructure and client interface capabilities as well as investments and partnerships with third party technology providers) will be successful or that it will allow NWM N.V. Group to continue to grow such services in the future.
In addition, certain of NWM N.V. Group's current or future competitors may be more successful in implementing innovative technologies for delivering products or services to their clients.
These competitors may be better able to attract and retain clients and key employees, may have better IT systems, and may have access to lower cost funding and/or be able to attract deposits or provide investment banking services on more favourable terms than NWM N.V. Group. As mentioned above, NWM N.V. operates a shared services model in relation to technology and innovation. Although NWM N.V. Group invests in new technologies and participates in industry and research-led initiatives aimed at developing new technologies, such investments may be insufficient or ineffective, especially given NWM N.V. Group's focus on its cost savings targets. This may limit additional investment in areas such as financial innovation and could therefore affect NWM N.V. Group's offering of innovative products or technologies for delivering products or services to clients and its competitive position. NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group may also fail to identify future opportunities or derive benefits from disruptive technologies in the context of rapid technological innovation, changing customer behaviour and growing regulatory demands. The development of innovative products depends on NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group's ability to produce underlying high-quality data, failing which its ability to offer innovative products may be compromised.
If NWM N.V. Group is unable to offer competitive, attractive and innovative products that are also profitable and timely, it will lose share, incur losses on some or all of its activities and lose opportunities for growth. In this context, NWM N.V. Group is investing in the automation of certain solutions and interactions within its customer-facing businesses, including through artificial intelligence. Such initiatives may result in operational, reputational and conduct risks if the technology used is defective or is not fully integrated into NWM N.V. Group's current solutions. There can be no certainty that such initiatives will deliver the expected cost savings and investment in automated processes will likely also result in increased short-term costs for NWM N.V. Group.
In addition, the implementation of the NWM Refocusing and NatWest Group's Purpose-led Strategy (including NatWest Group's acquisitions, divestments, reorganisations, restructurings and partnerships, its climate ambition), cost-reduction measures, as well as employee remuneration constraints, may also have an impact on NWM N.V. Group's ability to compete effectively and intensified competition from incumbents, challengers and new entrants could affect NWM N.V. Group's ability to provide satisfactory returns.
Moreover, activist investors have increasingly become engaged and interventionist in recent years, which may pose a threat to NatWest Group's strategic initiatives. Furthermore, continued consolidation or technological or other developments in certain sectors of the financial services industry could result in NWM N.V. Group's remaining competitors gaining greater capital and other resources, including the ability to offer a broader range of products and services and geographic diversity, or the emergence of new competitors, each of which can adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's business and results of operations.
NWM N.V. Group is reliant on access to the capital markets to meet its funding requirements. The inability to do so may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group.
NWM N.V. Group's is reliant on frequent access to the capital markets for funding, and on terms that are acceptable to it. Such access entails execution risk and could be impeded by a number of internal or external factors, including, those referred to above in 'NWM N.V. Group faces market risk as a result of increased political and economic risks and uncertainty in the UK, European and global markets', 'Continuing uncertainty regarding the effects of the UK's withdrawal from the EU may continue to adversely affect NWM Plc (NWM N.V.'s parent company) and its operating environment and NatWest Group plc (NWM N.V.'s ultimate parent company) and may have an indirect effect on NWM N.V. Group.' and 'Any reduction in the credit rating and/or outlooks assigned to NatWest Group plc, any of its subsidiaries (including NWM Plc or NWM N.V.) or any of their respective debt securities could adversely affect the availability of funding for NWM N.V. Group, reduce NWM N.V. Group's liquidity position and increase the cost of funding'.
In addition, NWM N.V. receives capital and funding from NatWest Group plc and NWM N.V. is therefore reliant on the willingness of NatWest Group plc to fund its internal capital targets. NWM N.V. Group has set target levels for different tiers of capital as percentages of its RWAs, being a minimum CET1 capital ratio of more than 15% and a minimum CRR leverage ratio of more than 4%. The level of capital and funding required for NWM N.V. to meet its internal targets is therefore a function of the level of RWAs and its leverage exposure in NWM N.V. and this may vary over time.
Any inability of NWM N.V. Group to adequately access the capital markets, to manage its balance sheet in line with assumptions in its funding plans, may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's, such that NWM N.V. Group may not constitute a viable banking business and/or NWM N.V. may fail to meet its regulatory capital requirements (at present, NWM N.V. does not yet have its own MREL requirements).
NatWest Group is subject to annual stress tests by its regulator in the UK and is also subject to stress tests by European regulators with respect to NatWest Group plc, NWM N.V. and Ulster Bank Ireland DAC. Stress tests are designed to assess the resilience of banks to potential adverse economic or financial developments and ensure that they have robust, forward-looking capital planning processes that account for the risks associated with their business profile. If the stress tests reveal that a bank's existing regulatory capital buffers are not sufficient to absorb the impact of the stress, then it is possible that NatWest Group and/or NWM Group may need to take action to strengthen their capital positions.
Failure by NatWest Group to meet its quantitative and qualitative requirements of the stress tests set forth by its UK regulators or those elsewhere may result in: NatWest Group's regulators requiring NatWest Group to generate additional capital, reputational damage, increased supervision and/or regulatory sanctions and/or loss of investor confidence.
NWM N.V. Group, which NWM Plc acquired in late 2019, has a portfolio of loans and loan commitments to Western European corporate customers. As a result, through the NWM N.V. business and NWM Group's other activities, NWM Group has exposure to many different industries, customers and counterparties, and risks arising from actual or perceived changes in credit quality and the recoverability of monies due from borrowers and other counterparties are inherent in a wide range of NWM N.V. Group's businesses. These are particularly relevant for those businesses for which the concentration of client income is heavily weighted towards a specific geographic region, industry or client base.
NWM N.V. Group is also exposed to credit risk if a customer, borrower or counterparty defaults, or under IFRS 9, suffers a sufficiently significant deterioration of credit quality such that, under SICR ('significant increases in credit risk') rules, it moves to Stage 2 for impairment calculation purposes. Credit risk may arise from a variety of business activities, including, but not limited to: extending credit to clients through various lending commitments; entering into swap or other derivative contracts under which counterparties have obligations to make payments to NWM N.V. Group (including un-collateralised derivatives); providing short or long-term funding that is secured by physical or financial collateral whose value may at times be insufficient to fully cover the loan repayment amount; posting margin and/or collateral and other commitments to clearing houses, clearing agencies, exchanges, banks, securities firms and other financial counterparties; and investing and trading in securities and loan pools, whereby the value of these assets may fluctuate based on realised or expected defaults on the underlying obligations or loans. See also, 'Risk and capital management - Credit Risk'.
Any negative developments in the activities listed above may negatively impact NWM N.V. Group's clients and credit exposures, which may, in turn, adversely impact NWM N.V. Group's profitability.
The credit quality of NWM N.V. Group's borrowers and other counterparties is impacted by prevailing economic and market conditions (including those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic) and by the legal and regulatory landscape in Europe in general, and any deterioration in such conditions or changes to legal or regulatory landscapes could worsen borrower and counterparty credit quality and consequently adversely impact NWM N.V. Group's ability to enforce contractual security rights.
Concerns about, or a default by, a financial institution could lead to significant liquidity problems and losses or defaults by other financial institutions, since the commercial and financial soundness of many financial institutions is closely related and inter-dependent as a result of credit, trading, clearing and other relationships. Any perceived lack of creditworthiness of a counterparty may lead to market-wide liquidity
problems and losses for NWM N.V. Group. In addition, the value of collateral may be correlated with the probability of default by the relevant counterparty ('wrong way risk'), which could increase NWM N.V. Group's potential loss. This systemic risk may also adversely affect financial intermediaries, such as clearing agencies, clearing houses, banks, securities firms and exchanges with which NWM N.V. Group interacts on a daily basis. See also 'NWM N.V. Group is reliant on access to the capital markets to meet its funding requirements. The inability to do so may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group'.
As a result of the above, borrower and counterparty credit quality may cause accelerated impairment charges under IFRS 9, increased repurchase demands, higher costs, additional write-downs and losses for NWM N.V. Group and an inability to engage in routine funding transactions.
NWM N.V. Group is exposed to the financial industry, including sovereign debt securities, banks, financial intermediation providers (including providing facilities to financial sponsors and funds, backed by assets or investor commitments) and securitised products (typically senior lending to special purpose vehicles backed by pools of financial assets). Due to NWM N.V. Group's exposure to the financial industry, it also has exposure to shadow banking entities (i.e., entities which carry out banking activities outside a regulated framework). Recently, there has been increasing regulatory focus on shadow banking. In particular, the European Banking Authority Guidelines (EBA/GL/2015/20) require NWM N.V. Group to identify and monitor its exposure to shadow banking entities, implement and maintain an internal framework for the identification, management, control and mitigation of the risks associated with exposure to shadow banking entities, and ensure effective reporting and governance in respect of such exposure. If NWM N.V. Group is unable to properly identify and monitor its shadow banking exposure, maintain an adequate framework, or ensure effective reporting and governance in respect of shadow banking exposure, this may adversely affect the business, results of operations, and outlook of NWM N.V. Group.
Given the complexity of NWM N.V. Group's business, strategy and capital requirements, NWM N.V. Group relies on analytical models for a wide range of purposes, including to manage its business, assess the value of its assets and its risk exposure, as well as to anticipate capital and funding requirements (including to facilitate NatWest Group's mandated stress testing). In addition, NWM N.V. Group utilises models for valuations, credit approvals, calculation of loan impairment charges on an IFRS 9 basis, financial reporting and for financial crime and fraud risk management. NWM N.V. Group's models, and the parameters and assumptions on which they are based, are periodically reviewed and updated to maximise their accuracy.
As models analyse scenarios based on assumed inputs and a conceptual approach, model outputs therefore remain uncertain and should not be relied on. Failure of models, (including due to errors in model design) or new data inputs, including to accurately reflect changes in the micro and macroeconomic environment in which NWM N.V. Group operates (for example to account for the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic), to capture risks and exposures at the subsidiary level, and to update for changes to NWM N.V. Group's current business model or operations, or for findings of deficiencies by NatWest Group (and in particular NWM Group's) or NWM N.V. Group's regulators (including as part of NatWest Group's mandated stress testing) may result in increased capital requirements, or require management action. NWM N.V. Group may also face adverse consequences as a result of actions based on models that are poorly developed, implemented or used, models that are based on inaccurate or compromised data or as a result of the modelled outcome being misunderstood, or by such information being used for purposes for which it was not designed.
The preparation of financial statements requires management to make judgments, estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, income, expenses, exposures and RWAs. While estimates, judgments and assumptions take into account historical experience and other factors (including market practice and expectations of future events that are believed to be reasonable under the circumstances), actual results may differ due to the inherent uncertainty in making estimates, judgments and assumptions (particularly those involving the use of complex models).
The accounting policies deemed critical to NWM N.V. Group's results and financial position, based upon materiality and significant judgments and estimates, which include loan impairment provisions, are set out in 'Critical accounting policies and key sources of estimation uncertainty' on page 59 of the 2020 Financial Statements. New accounting standards and interpretations that have been issued by the International Accounting Standards Board but which have not yet been adopted by NWM N.V. Group are discussed in 'Future accounting developments International Financial Reporting Standards' on page 59 of the 2020 Financial Statements.
Changes in accounting standards or guidance by accounting bodies or in the timing of their implementation, whether immediate or foreseeable, could result in NWM N.V. Group having to recognise additional liabilities on its balance sheet, or in further write-downs or impairments to its assets and could also significantly impact the financial results, condition and prospects of NWM N.V. Group.
NWM N.V. Group's trading assets amounted to EUR 4,380 as at 31 December 2020. The valuation of financial instruments, including derivatives, measured at fair value can be subjective, in particular where models are used which include unobservable inputs. Generally, to establish the fair value of these
instruments, NWM N.V. Group relies on quoted market prices or, where the market for a financial instrument is not sufficiently credible, internal valuation models that utilise observable market data. In certain circumstances, the data for individual financial instruments or classes of financial instruments utilised by such valuation models may not be available or may become unavailable due to prevailing market conditions. In these circumstances, NWM N.V. Group's internal valuation models require NWM N.V. Group to make assumptions, judgments and estimates to establish fair value, which are complex and often relate to matters that are inherently uncertain. Any of these factors could require NWM N.V. Group to recognise fair value losses, which may have an adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's income generation and financial position.
The directive providing for the establishment of an EU-wide framework for the recovery and resolution of credit institutions and investment firms (2014/59/EU) ('BRRD') establishes a common approach within the EU for the recovery and resolution of banks. In the EU UK and The Netherlands the BRRD has been implemented via national legislation which grants powers to a national resolution authority ('NRA'). The UK implementation of the BRRD remains in force now that the Brexit transition period has ended. In Europe (which for the avoidance of doubt excludes the UK) the BRRD is also (partly) implemented by a directly binding regulation which established a Single Resolution Mechanism ('SRM') and a single EU Resolution Board ('SRB') with powers which exceed the powers of the EU NRAs.
HM Treasury, the Bank of England and the Prudential Regulatory Authority (the 'PRA') (the prudential regulator of NWM Plc the parent company of NWM N.V.) and Financial Conduct Authority (the 'FCA') (together, the 'Authorities') are granted substantial powers to resolve and stabilise UK-incorporated financial institutions.
Five stabilisation options exist: (i) transfer of all of the business of a relevant entity or the shares of the relevant entity to a private sector purchaser; (ii) transfer of all or part of the business of the relevant entity to a 'bridge bank' wholly-owned by the Bank of England; (iii) transfer of part of the assets, rights or liabilities of the relevant entity to one or more asset management vehicles for management
Of the transferor's assets, rights or liabilities; (iv) the 'Bail-in Tool' consisting of the write-down, conversion, transfer, modification, or suspension of the relevant entity's equity, capital instruments and liabilities ('Eligible Liabilities'); and (v) temporary public ownership of the relevant entity. These tools may be applied to options (i) to (v) above being referred to as the 'Resolution Stabilisation Tools'). These Resolution Stabilisation Tools may be applied to a UK bank or investment firm and certain of its affiliates (which would include NatWest Group plc as the parent company), where certain conditions are met (such as, whether the firm is failing or likely to fail, or whether it is reasonably likely that action will be taken (outside of resolution) that will result in the firm no longer failing or being likely to fail). Moreover, there are modified insolvency and administration procedures for relevant entities, and the UK Authorities have the power to modify or override certain contractual arrangements in certain circumstances and amend the law for the purpose of enabling their powers to be used effectively and may apply promulgate provisions with retrospective applicability. Similar powers may also be exercised in The Netherlands by the relevant Dutch regulatory authorities.
Under the UK Banking Act, the UK Authorities are generally required to have regard to specified objectives in exercising the powers provided for by the Banking Act. One of the objectives (which is required to be balanced as appropriate with the other specified objectives) refers to the protection and enhancement of the stability of the financial system of the UK. Moreover, the 'no creditor worse off' safeguard contained in the Banking Act (which provides that creditors' losses in resolution should not exceed those that would have been realised in an insolvency of the relevant institution) may not apply in relation to an application of the separate write-down and conversion power relating to capital instruments under the Banking Act, in circumstances where a stabilisation power is not also used; Holders of debt instruments which are subject to the power may, however, have ordinary shares transferred to or issued to them by way of compensation.
Uncertainty exists as to how the UK Authorities may exercise their powers including the determination of actions undertaken in relation to the ordinary shares and other securities of NatWest Group plc (and certain of its affiliates) which may depend on factors outside of NatWest Group plc's control. Moreover the UK Banking Act provisions remain untested in practice.
The Netherlands - NWM N.V.
The special resolution regime measures set out in the BRRD were implemented into Dutch law in 2015. The BRRD, and the SRM, provide that the Dutch Central Bank and the SRB are the resolution authorities responsible for a resolution in relation to NWM N.V. (the 'N.V. Authorities', and together with the UK Authorities, the 'Authorities') with broad powers to implement resolution measures with respect to banks incorporated in The Netherlands which meet the conditions for resolution, which may include (without limitation) measures analogous to the Resolution Stabilisation Tools (options set out at points (i) to (v) above under the Banking Act). These powers and tools are designed to be used prior to the point at which any insolvency proceedings with respect to NWM N.V. could have been initiated.
In addition to the resolution powers of the N.V. Authorities described above, the Dutch Minister of Finance may, with immediate effect, take measures or expropriate assets and liabilities of, claims against or securities issued by or with the consent of NWM N.V., if in the Minister of Finance's opinion the stability of the financial system is in serious and immediate danger as a result of the situation in which the firm finds itself (the 'Minister of Finance Powers').
There remains uncertainty regarding the ultimate nature and scope of these powers, and any exercise of the resolution regime powers by the N.V. Authorities or the Minister of Finance Powers by the Dutch Minister of Finance may adversely affect holders of NWM N.V.'s Eligible Liabilities that fall within the scope of such powers.
If NatWest Group is at or is approaching the point of non-viability such that regulatory intervention is required, there may correspondingly be an adverse effect on the business, results of operations and outlook NWM N.V. Group.
NatWest Group is subject to Bank of England oversight in respect of resolution, and NWM N.V. Group could be adversely affected should the Bank of England deem NatWest Group's preparations to be inadequate.
NatWest Group is subject to regulatory oversight by the Bank of England, and is required (under the PRA rulebook) to carry out an assessment of its preparations for resolution, submit a report of the assessment
to the PRA and disclose a summary of this report. The initial report is due to be submitted to the PRA on 1 October 2021 and the Bank of England's assessment of NatWest Group's preparations is scheduled to be released on 10 June 2022. The form and substance of the June publication is yet to be established.
NatWest Group has dedicated significant resources towards the preparation of NatWest Group for a potential resolution scenario. However, if the assessment reveals that NatWest Group is not adequately prepared to be resolved, or does not have adequate plans in place to meet resolvability requirements by 1 January 2022, NatWest Group may be required to take action to enhance its preparations to be resolvable, resulting in additional cost and the dedication of additional resources. These actions may adversely affect NatWest Group and/or NWM N.V. Group, resulting in restrictions on maximum individual and aggregate exposures, a requirement to dispose of specified assets, a requirement to cease carrying out certain activities. This may also result in reputational damage and/or loss of investor confidence.
Climate and sustainability-related risks
NWM N.V. Group and its customers may face significant climate-related risks, including in transitioning to a low-carbon economy, which may adversely impact NWM N.V. Group.
Climate-related risks and uncertainties are subject to increasing national and international prudential and regulatory, political and societal scrutiny.
Financial and non-financial risks from climate change arise through physical and transition risks. Furthermore, NWM N.V. Group may face a variety of climate-related legal risks, both physical and transition, from potential litigation and contract liability. See also, 'NWM N.V. Group may be subject to potential climate, environmental and other sustainability-related litigation, enforcement proceedings, investigations and conduct risk'.
It is very difficult to predict how and when the physical risks from climate change will manifest. They include more extreme and frequent weather events, rising sea levels, flooding and subsidence, heat waves and long-lasting wildfires, reductions in biodiversity and resource scarcity. Damage to NWM N.V. customers' properties and operations could disrupt business, impair asset values and negatively impact creditworthiness leading to increased default rates, delinquencies, write-offs and impairment charges in NWM N.V. Group's portfolios. In addition, NWM N.V. Group may itself suffer damage to premises and disruption to operations leading to increased costs and negatively affecting business continuity.
The timing and pace of the transition to a low-carbon economy is also uncertain and may be near term, gradual and orderly or delayed, rapid and disorderly. Widespread levels of adjustment to a low-carbon economy across all sectors of the economy and markets in which NWM N.V. Group operates will be required by several multilateral agreements, in particular the 2015 Paris Agreement and the Dutch Government's commitment to cutting The Netherlands' carbon emissions with 95% by 2050, compared to 1990 levels, and by proposals stemming from the EU Sustainable Finance Action Plan. The impact of the extensive commercial, technological, policy and regulatory changes required to achieve transition remains uncertain, but it is expected to be significant and may be disruptive across the global economy and markets. Some sectors within NWM N.V. Group's customer base (including oil and gas, automotive and transport, for example) are expected to be particularly impacted.
If NWM N.V. Group fails to timely adapt its business and operating model to the climate-related risks and opportunities and changing market expectations, or to appropriately identify, measure, manage and mitigate climate change related physical and transition risks and opportunities that NWM N.V. Group and its customers face, NWM N.V. Group's reputation, business, results of operations and outlook may be impacted adversely.
NatWest Group's Purpose-led Strategy includes one area of focus on climate change that is likely to require material changes to the business and operating model of NWM N.V. Group and entails significant execution risk.
NatWest Group has announced its ambition to become the leading bank on climate in the UK and ROI and set itself the challenge to at least halve the climate impact of its financing activity by 2030 Agreement ('Climate Ambition') and to do what is necessary to achieve alignment with the 2015 Paris Agreement.
NatWest Group's Climate Ambition may require NWM N.V. Group to significantly reduce its own financed emissions and its exposure to customers that do not align with a transition to a low-carbon economy or do not have a credible transition plan. Those reductions, together with the active management of climate-related risks and regulatory, policy and market changes, are likely to necessitate material and accelerated changes to NWM N.V. Group's business and operating model. This may have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's ability to achieve financial targets and generate sustainable returns.
To understand and measure the climate impact of emissions related to NWM N.V. Group's financing activities and alignment to the 2015 Paris Agreement objectives will require significant resources. There is currently no single standard approach or methodology exist to measure such emissions and to provide a scenario-based model for alignment with the objectives of the 2015 Paris Agreement and the data, methodologies and assumptions on which emissions estimates and targets are based are also subject to change. Accordingly, NatWest Group, including NWM N.V. Group, must continue to define and develop its approach to setting and publishing comprehensive sector-specific and climate impact scenario-based targets and plans by 2022 and to benchmarking its climate impact to measure and demonstrate its progress towards its Climate Ambition by 2030.
NWM N.V. Group's ability to contribute to achieving NatWest Group's Climate Ambition through its own specific targets and commitments will depend greatly on many external factors such as the macroeconomic environment, the extent and pace of climate change, including the timing and manifestation of physical and transition risks and the effectiveness of actions of governments, legislators, regulators, businesses, investors, customers and other stakeholders to adapt and/or mitigate the impact of climate-related risks. See also, 'NatWest Group is in the process of implementing its Purpose-led Strategy, which requires changes in the business and strategy of NWM N.V. Group, and entails material execution, commercial and operational risks for NWM N.V. Group'.
Any delay or failure to meet those climate-related targets and commitments and may have a material adverse impact on NWM N.V. Group's reputation, business, results, outlook, market and competitive position.
Any failure by NWM N.V. Group to implement effective and compliant climate change resilient systems, controls and procedures could adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's ability to manage climate-related risks.
Legislative and regulatory authorities in the UK and in the European Union are publishing expectations as to how banks should prudently manage and transparently disclose climate-related and environmental risks. In November 2020, the European Central Bank published its 'Guide on climate-related and environmental risks' and in April 2019, the PRA published a supervisory statement 'Enhancing banks' and insurers' approaches to managing the financial risks from climate change' (the 'SS 3/19').
In April 2020, the DNB published its 'Good Practices on Integration of Climate Risks for Banks' document in which it sets out the supervisory expectation that banks (including NWM N.V.) should incorporate climate-related risks into their governance and risk management arrangements in line with the principle of proportionality. In order to achieve this, the DNB provides several non-binding 'good practices' that banks could adhere to, including:
· incorporating an organisation-wide strategic approach toward climate-related risks, along with the integration of climate-related considerations in policy framework;
· embedding the identification, assessment, mitigation and monitoring of climate change related risks in banks' risk management framework; and
· disclosing the carbon footprint of lending and investment portfolio in the annual report.
In addition, the DNB has confirmed that it will perform more stress tests to assess the impact of climate change on the financial sector.
In June 2020, the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets in The Netherlands (Stichting Autoriteit Financiële Markten ('AFM')) published its position paper on sustainability. In this position paper the AFM describes what it expects from market parties when it comes to sustainability and how the AFM will be supervising this. The AFM confirms, amongst others, that:
· a sustainable economy and society is a supervisory priority of the AFM and is increasingly becoming an integral part of its supervision strategy; and
· it expects market participants to integrate sustainability aspects in a responsible and careful manner in their financial products and services.
The Bank of England will use the 2021 biennial exploratory scenario launching in June 2021 to stress test the resilience of the current business models of the largest banks, insurers and the financial system to the physical and transition risks from climate change under a number of climate scenarios (the 'Climate Biennial Explanatory Scenario' or 'CBES'). In December 2020 the Bank of England confirmed that the 2021 CBES will be exploratory in nature and will not be used to set capital requirements. However, in future, regulators may require financial institutions such as NatWest Group (including NWM N.V. Group) to hold additional capital to enhance their resilience against systemic and/or institution specific vulnerabilities to climate-related risks, including potential asset devaluation shocks.
Any failure of NWM N.V. Group to fully and timely embed the climate-related risks into its risk management practices in line with applicable legal and regulatory requirements and expectations may have a material and adverse impact on NWM N.V. Group's regulatory compliance, prudential capital requirements, liquidity position, reputation, business, results of operations and outlook.
There are significant uncertainties inherent in accurately modelling the impact of climate-related risks.
Significant risks, uncertainties and variables are inherent in the assessment, measurement and mitigation of climate-related risks. These include data quality gaps and limitations, the pace at which climate science, greenhouse gas accounting standards and carbon capture and other emissions reduction solutions develop. In addition, multiple climate change scenarios dependent on a range of variable factors could unfold over the coming two or three decades, which timeframes are considerably longer than NWM N.V. Group's historical strategic, financial, resilience and investment planning horizons and which will affect how and when climate-related risks manifest.
As a result, it is very difficult to predict and model the impact of climate-related risks into precise financial and economic outcomes and impacts. Climate-related risks present significant methodological challenges due to their forward-looking nature, the lack of historical testing capabilities, the quality, lack of standardisation and incompleteness of emissions and other climate and sub-sector related data and the immature nature of risk measurement and modelling methodologies. The evaluation of climate-related risk exposure and the development of associated potential risk mitigation techniques largely depend on the choice of climate scenario modelling methodology and the assumptions made.
Risks and uncertainties of climate scenario modelling include (but are not limited to):
· lack of specialist expertise in banks such that NWM N.V. Group needs to rely on third party advice, modelling, and data;
· immaturity of modelling of and data on the impact of climate-related risks on financial assets which will evolve rapidly in the coming years;
· the number of variables and forward- looking nature of climate scenarios which makes them challenging to back test and benchmark;
· the significant uncertainty as to how the climate will evolve over time, how and when governments, regulators, businesses, investors and customers respond and how those responses impact the economy, asset valuations, land systems, energy systems, technology, policy and wider society.
Capabilities within NWM N.V. Group to appropriately assess, model and manage climate-related risks are developing. Even when those capabilities are developed, the high level of uncertainty and subjectivity around assumptions, the highly subjective nature of risk measurement and mitigation techniques, and data quality issues may lead to inadequate risk management information and frameworks, ineffective business adaptation or mitigation strategies, which may have a material adverse impact on NWM N.V. Group's regulatory compliance, reputation, business, results of operations and outlook.
A failure to adapt NWM N.V. Group's business strategy, governance, procedures, systems and controls to manage emerging sustainability-related risks and opportunities may have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's reputation, business, results of operations and outlook.
Investors, customers, international organisations, regulators and other stakeholders are increasingly focussing on identification, management and mitigation of 'sustainability-related' risks and opportunities such as environmental (including biodiversity and loss of natural capital); social (such as tackling inequality, inclusion, human rights and working conditions); and governance (such as board diversity, ethics, executive compensation and management structure) and on long term sustainable value creation.
In addition to climate-related risks, sustainability-related risks may also adversely affect economic activity, asset pricing and valuations of issuers' securities and, in turn, the wider financial system and together with climate-related risks, may combine to generate even greater adverse effects. Sustainability-related risks may impact economic activities directly or indirectly and may affect the viability or resilience of business models over the medium to longer term. In addition, sustainability-related risks can trigger further losses stemming directly or indirectly from legal claims (liability risks) and reputational damage as a result of the public, customers, counterparties and/or investors associating the NWM N.V. Group or its customers with adverse sustainability-related issues, as well as exacerbate existing risks.
Failure to adapt NWM N.V. Group's business strategy and to establish and maintain effective governance, procedures, systems and controls to manage emerging sustainability-related risks and opportunities may have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's reputation, liquidity position, business, results of operations and outlook.
Any reduction in the ESG ratings of NatWest Group (including NWM N.V. Group) could have a negative impact on NatWest Group's (including NWM N.V. Group) reputation and on investors' and customers risk appetite.
Unsolicited ESG ratings from agencies and data providers that rate how NatWest Group (including NWM N.V. Group) manages environmental, social and governance risks are increasingly influencing investment decisions. Changes to those ESG ratings can arise from factors outside NatWest Group's (including NWM N.V. Group) control (e.g. change in rating methodology). Any reduction in ESG ratings of NatWest Group could have a negative impact on NWM N.V. Group's reputation and influence investors' risk appetite for NWM N.V. Group's and/or its subsidiaries' securities and affect whether customers wish to deal with NWM N.V. Group.
Increasing levels of climate, environmental and sustainability-related laws, regulation and oversight may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's business and expose NWM N.V. Group to increased costs of compliance, regulatory sanction and reputational damage.
There are an increasing number of EU, Dutch and other regulatory and legislative initiatives to address issues around climate, environmental and sustainability risks and opportunities and to promote the transition to a more sustainable low-carbon economy, affecting the financial sector and the real economy. Many focus on disclosure, developing standardised definitions for green and sustainable criteria of assets and liabilities and integrating climate change and sustainability into decision-making to improve transparency and access to green and sustainable financial products and services. This may significantly impact the services provided by NWM N.V. Group and its associated credit, market and financial risk profile as well as its recognition of its climate financing activity, in turn adversely affecting NatWest Group's (including NWM N.V. Group) achievement of its Climate Ambition.
In addition, NWM N.V. Group will continue to be subject to an increasing array of the EU/EEA climate and sustainability-related legal and regulatory requirements, such as the EU Taxonomy and EU Green Bond Standards.
For example, DNB and the AFM are also increasingly focused on climate change sustainability have recently announced good practices and supervisory expectations relating to these topics.
In addition, NWM N.V. will be subject to increasing entity wide climate and other non-financial disclosures requirements with varying objectives and scopes, including the requirement to provide climate-related disclosures consistent with the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure ('TCFD') recommendations. The FCA will also consult on expanding its proposed new stock exchange listing rules for a wider scope of listed issuers, including NWM Group (the parent of NWM N.V. Group), as the UK moves towards mandatory TCFD reporting across the UK economy by 2025.
NatWest Group (including NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group) is also participating in various voluntary carbon reporting and other standard setting initiatives for disclosing climate and sustainability-related information.
Compliance with these developing requirements is likely to require NWM N.V. Group to implement significant changes to its business, operations, internal controls over financial reporting, disclosure controls, modelling capability and risk management systems, which may increase the cost of doing business, entail additional change risk and compliance costs.
Failure to implement and comply with these requirements or emerging best practice expectations may have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's regulatory compliance and may result in regulatory sanction and reputational damage.
NWM N.V. Group may be subject to potential climate, environmental and other sustainability-related litigation, enforcement proceedings, investigations and conduct risk.
The increasing number of new climate and sustainability-related laws and regulations, growing demand from investors and customers for environmentally sustainable products and services, and regulatory scrutiny exposes financial institutions, including NWM N.V. Group, to increasing litigation, conduct, enforcement and contract liability risks.
Furthermore, there is the risk that shareholders, campaign groups, customers and other interest groups could seek to take legal action against NWM N.V. Group for financing, underwriting or contributing to climate change and environmental degradation. These potential, litigation, conduct, enforcement and contract liability risks may have a material adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group's ability to deliver its strategy, reputation, business, results of operations and outlook.
Operational and IT resilience risk
Operational risks (including reliance on third party suppliers and outsourcing of certain activities) are inherent in NWM N.V. Group's businesses.
Operational risk is the risk of loss resulting from inadequate or failed internal processes, procedures, people or systems, or from external events, including legal risks. It has come under increasing regulatory focus in recent years. NWM N.V. Group operates in many countries, offering a diverse range of products and services supported by 200 employees as at 31 December 2020; it therefore has complex and diverse operations. As a result, operational risks or losses can arise from a number of internal or external factors (including financial crime). These risks are also present when NWM N.V. Group relies on third-party suppliers or vendors to provide services to it or its clients, as is increasingly the case as NWM N.V. Group outsources certain activities, including with respect to the implementation of new technologies, innovation and responding to regulatory and market changes.
There is no certainty that the suppliers selected by NWM N.V. Group deliver on their contractual obligations or that such suppliers are able to provide the functions for which they have been contracted which could adversely affect the operations of NWM N.V.
Operational risks continue to be heightened as a result of the implementation of the NWM Refocusing and NatWest Group's Purpose-led Strategy, NWM N.V. Group's current cost-reduction measures and conditions affecting the financial services industry generally (including Brexit and other geo-political developments) and in particular the legal and regulatory uncertainty resulting therefrom. It is unclear as to how the future ways of working may evolve, including in respect of how working practices may develop, or how NWM N.V. Group will evolve to best serve its customers. Any of the above may place significant pressure on NWM N.V. Group's ability to maintain effective internal controls and governance frameworks.
As part of the NWM Refocusing, NWM Group (including NWM N.V. Group) has materially increased its dependence on NatWest Bank Plc for numerous critical services and operations, including without limitation, property, finance, accounting, treasury risk, regulatory compliance and reporting, human resources, and certain other support and administrative functions. In addition, NWM N.V. Group has materially increased its dependence on NWM Plc for numerous critical services similar to those outlined above. A failure by NatWest Bank Plc or NWM Plc to adequately supply these services may expose NWM N.V. Group to critical business failure risk, increased costs and other liabilities. These and any increases in the cost of these services may adversely impact NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook.
The effective management of operational risks is critical to meeting customer service expectations and retaining and attracting client business. Although NWM N.V. Group has implemented risk controls and mitigation actions, with resources and planning having been devoted to mitigating operational risk, such measures may not be effective in controlling each of the operational risks faced by NWM N.V. Group. Ineffective management of such risks could adversely affect NWM N.V. Group.
NWM N.V. Group is subject to increasingly sophisticated and frequent cyberattacks.
NWM N.V. Group experiences a constant threat from cyberattacks across the entire NatWest Group (including NWM N.V. Group) and against NatWest Group and NWM N.V. Group's supply chain, reinforcing the importance of due diligence of close working relationship with, the third parties on which NWM N.V. Group relies. NWM N.V. Group is reliant on technology, against which there is a constantly evolving series of attacks, that are increasing in terms of frequency, sophistication, impact and severity. As cyberattacks evolve and become more sophisticated, NWM N.V. Group is required to continue to invest in additional capability designed to defend against emerging threats.
In 2020, NWM N.V. Group was subjected to a small number of Distributed Denial of Service ('DDOS') attacks, which are a pervasive and significant threat to the global financial services industry. The focus is to manage the impact of the attacks and sustain availability of services for NWM N.V. Group's customers. NWM N.V. Group continues to invest significant resources in the development and evolution of cyber security controls that are designed to minimise the potential effect of such attacks.
Hostile attempts are made by third parties to gain access to, introduce malware (including ransomware) into and exploit vulnerabilities of NWM N.V. Group's IT systems, and to exploit vulnerabilities. NWM N.V. Group has information and cyber security controls in place to minimise the impact of any attack, which are subject to review on a continuing basis, but given the nature of the threat, there can be no assurance that such measures will prevent all attacks in the future. See also, 'NWM N.V. Group's operations are highly dependent on its complex IT systems (including those that enable remote working), and any IT failure could adversely affect NWM N.V. Group'.
Any failure in NatWest Group's and NWM Group's (and therefore NWM N.V. Group's) cybersecurity policies, procedures or controls, may result in significant financial losses, major business disruption, inability to deliver customer services, or loss of data or other sensitive information (including as a result of an outage) and may cause associated reputational damage. Any of these factors could increase costs (including costs relating to notification of, or compensation for clients and credit monitoring), result in regulatory investigations or sanctions being imposed or may affect NWM N.V. Group's ability to retain and attract clients. Regulators in the UK, US, Europe and Asia continue to recognise cybersecurity as an increasing systemic risk to the financial sector and have highlighted the need for financial institutions to improve their monitoring and control of, and resilience (particularly of critical services) to cyberattacks, and to provide timely notification of them, as appropriate.
Additionally, third parties may also fraudulently attempt to induce employees, customers, third party providers or other users who have access to NWM N.V. Group's systems to disclose sensitive information in order to gain access to NWM N.V. Group's data or that of NWM N.V. Group's clients or employees. Cybersecurity and information security events can derive from groups or factors such as: internal or external threat actors, human error, fraud or malice on the part of NWM N.V. Group's employees or third parties, including third party providers, or may result from accidental technological failure.
NWM N.V. Group expects greater regulatory engagement, supervision and enforcement to continue at a high level by the DNB in relation to its overall resilience to withstand IT and related disruption, either through a cyberattack or some other disruptive event. Such increased regulatory engagement, supervision and enforcement is uncertain in relation to the scope, cost, consequence and pace of change, which could negatively impact NWM N.V. Group. Due to NWM N.V. Group's reliance on technology and the increasing sophistication, frequency and impact of cyberattacks, it is likely that such attacks could have a material adverse impact on NWM N.V. Group.
In accordance with the General Data Protection Regulation ('GDPR') and the European Banking Authority (EBA) Guidelines on ICT and Security Risk Management, NWM N.V. Group is required to ensure it implements timely appropriate and effective organisational and technological safeguards against unauthorised or unlawful access to data of NWM N.V. Group, its clients and its employees. In order to meet this requirement, NWM N.V. Group relies on the effectiveness of its internal policies, controls and procedures to protect the confidentiality, integrity and availability of information held on its IT systems, networks and devices as well as with third parties with whom NWM N.V. Group interacts. A failure to monitor and manage data in accordance with the GDPR and the EBA requirements of the applicable legislation may result in financial losses, regulatory fines and investigations and associated reputational damage. In addition, whilst NWM N.V. Group takes measures to prevent, detect and minimise attacks, NWM N.V. Group's systems, and those of third party providers, are subject to frequent cyberattacks.
NWM N.V. Group operations and strategy are highly dependent on the accuracy and effective use of data.
NWM N.V. Group relies on the effective use of accurate data to support, monitor, evaluate, manage and enhance its operations and deliver its strategy. The availability of current, detailed, accurate and, wherever possible, machine-readable customer segment and sub-sector data is fast becoming a critical strategic asset. Failure to have current high-quality data and/or the ineffective use of such data could result in a failure to manage and report important risks and opportunities or satisfy customers' expectations including the inability to deliver innovative products and services. This could also result in a failure to deliver NWM N.V. Group's strategy and could place NWM N.V. Group at a competitive disadvantage by increasing its costs, inhibiting its efforts to reduce costs or its ability to improve its systems, controls and processes which could result in a failure to deliver NWM N.V. Group's strategy. These data limitations or the unethical or inappropriate use of data and/or non-compliance with customer data and privacy protection laws could give rise to conduct and litigation risks and may increase the risk of operational events, losses or other adverse consequences due to inappropriate models, systems, processes, decisions or other actions.
NWM N.V. Group relies on attracting, retaining, developing and remunerating senior management and skilled personnel (such as market trading specialists), and is required to maintain good employee relations.
NWM N.V. Group's success depends on its ability to attract, retain, develop and remunerate highly skilled and qualified personnel, including senior management, directors, market trading specialists and key employees, especially for technology-focused roles, in a highly competitive market, in an era of strategic change (including a recent change in executive management) and under internal cost reduction pressures. NWM N.V. Group's ability to do this may be more difficult due to the implementation of the NWM Refocusing, the Dutch compensation regulations and heightened regulatory oversight of banks and the increasing scrutiny of, and (in some cases) restrictions placed upon, employee compensation arrangements, in particular those of banks in receipt of government support such as NatWest Group. This increases the cost of hiring, training and retaining skilled personnel. In addition, certain economic, market and regulatory conditions and political developments (including Brexit) may reduce the pool of candidates for key management and non-executive roles, including non-executive directors with the right skills, knowledge and experience, or increase the number of departures of existing employees. The NWM Refocusing has also reduced NWM N.V. Group's ability to engage in succession planning for critical roles given the recent reduction in headcount. This has placed increased risk on employee turnover within revenue generating areas.
Any reduction of compensation as a result of calls or recommendations form supervisors and/or regulators to mitigate the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic could have an adverse effect on NatWest Group's ability to hire, retain and engage well qualified employees, especially at a senior level, which may have a material adverse impact on the financial position and prospects of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group. See also, 'The COVID-19 pandemic has heightened NWM N.V. Group's operational risks as many of its employees are working remotely which may also adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's ability to maintain effective internal controls'.
Some of NWM N.V. Group's employees are represented by employee representative bodies, including a workers' council. Engagement with its employees and such bodies is important to NWM N.V. Group in maintaining good employee relations. Any breakdown of these relationships could affect NWM N.V. Group's business, reputation, results of operations and outlook.
NWM N.V. Group's operations are highly dependent on its complex IT systems (including those that enable remote working), and any IT failure could adversely affect NWM N.V. Group.
NWM N.V. Group's operations are highly dependent on the ability to process a very large number of transactions efficiently and accurately while complying with applicable laws and regulations. The proper functioning of NatWest Group's including NWM N.V. Group's transactional and payment systems, financial crime and sanctions controls, risk management, credit analysis and reporting, accounting, customer service and other IT systems (some of which are owned and operated by other entities in NatWest Group or third parties) is critical to NWM N.V. Group's operations.
Individually or collectively, any critical system failure, material loss of service availability or material breach of data security could cause serious damage to NWM N.V. Group's ability to provide services to its clients, which could result in reputational damage, significant compensation costs or regulatory sanctions (including fines resulting from regulatory investigations) or a breach of applicable regulations. In particular, such issues could cause long-term damage to NWM N.V. Group's reputation and could affect its regulatory approvals, competitive position, business and brands, which could undermine its ability to attract and retain clients. This risk is heightened as most of NWM N.V. Group's employees are working remotely as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, as it outsources certain functions and as it continues to innovate and offer new digital solutions to its clients as a result of the trend towards online and digital product offerings.
NWM N.V. Group continued to make considerable investments to further simplify, upgrade and improve its IT and technology capabilities (including migration of certain services to cloud platforms). As part of the NWM Refocusing, NWM Group, including NWM N.V. Group, also continues to develop and enhance digital services for its customers and seeks to improve its competitive position through enhancing controls and procedures and strengthening the resilience of services including cyber security. Any failure of these investment and rationalisation initiatives to achieve the expected results due to cost challenges or otherwise, could negatively affect NWM Group's operations, its reputation and ability to retain or grow its client business or adversely impact its competitive position, thereby negatively impacting NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook. See also, 'NatWest Group is in the process of implementing its Purpose-led Strategy, which requires changes in the business and strategy of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group, and entails material execution, commercial and operational risks for NWM N.V. Group'.
A failure in NWM N.V. Group's risk management framework could adversely affect NWM N.V. Group, including its ability to achieve its strategic objectives.
Risk management is an integral part of all of NWM N.V. Group's activities and includes the definition and monitoring of NWM N.V. Group's risk appetite and reporting on NWM N.V. Group's risk exposure and the potential impact thereof on NWM N.V. Group's financial condition. NWM N.V.'s risk management framework is based on the framework of NatWest Group and NWM Group. Financial risk management is highly dependent on the use and effectiveness of internal stress tests and models and ineffective risk management may arise from a wide variety of factors, including lack of transparency or incomplete risk reporting, unidentified conflicts or misaligned incentives, lack of accountability control and governance, lack of consistency in risk monitoring and management or insufficient challenges or assurance processes. Failure to manage risks effectively could adversely impact NWM N.V. Group's reputation or its relationship with its regulators, clients, shareholders or other stakeholders.
NWM N.V. Group's operations are inherently exposed to conduct risks, which include business decisions, actions or reward mechanisms that are not responsive to or aligned with NWM N.V. Group's regulatory obligations, client needs or do not reflect NWM N.V. Group's customer-focused strategy, ineffective product management, unethical or inappropriate use of data, information asymmetry, implementation and utilisation of new technologies, outsourcing of customer service and product delivery, the possibility of mis-selling of financial products and mishandling of customer complaints. Some of these risks have materialised in the past and ineffective management and oversight of conduct risks may lead to further remediation and regulatory intervention or enforcement. NWM N.V. Group's businesses are also exposed to risks from employee misconduct including non-compliance with policies and regulations, negligence or fraud (including financial crimes), any of which could result in regulatory fines or sanctions and serious reputational or financial harm to NWM N.V. Group. These risks may be exacerbated when most of NWM N.V. Group's employees work remotely as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, which places additional pressure on NWM N.V. Group's ability to maintain effective internal controls and governance frameworks.
As part of the NWM Refocusing, NWM N.V. Group is seeking to embed a strong risk culture across the organisation and has implemented policies and allocated new resources across all levels of the organisation to manage and mitigate conduct risk and expects to continue to invest in its risk management framework. However, such efforts may not insulate NWM N.V. Group from future instances of misconduct and no assurance can be given that NWM N.V. Group's strategy and control framework will be effective. See also, 'NatWest Group is in the process of implementing its Purpose-led Strategy, which requires changes in the business and strategy of NWM Group and NWM N.V. Group, and entails material execution, commercial and operational risks for NWM N.V. Group'.
There is also the risk that the risk management frameworks, as developed by NatWest Group and NWM Group, may not be properly adapted for NWM N.V.'s specific circumstances. Furthermore, NWM N.V. has policies and controls in place to combat financial crime, and has made technological and other investments to detect financial crime. Although NWM N.V. head office is located in Amsterdam (where NWM N.V. risk management function is based), it also operates branches in France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Sweden. Should such risk policies and controls be inadequate to combat financial crime, particularly in NWM N.V. branches (where there is less direct supervision) there could be an adverse impact on NWM N.V.
Any failure in NWM Group's risk management framework could negatively affect NWM Group and its financial condition through reputational and financial harm and may result in the inability to achieve its strategic objectives for its clients, employees and wider stakeholders.
NWM N.V. Group's operations are subject to inherent reputational risk.
Reputational risk relates to stakeholder and public perceptions of NWM N.V. Group arising from an actual or perceived failure to meet stakeholder expectations, including with respect to the NWM Refocusing and related targets, due to any events, behaviour, action or inaction by NWM N.V. Group, its employees or those with whom NWM N.V. Group is associated. This includes brand damage, which may be detrimental to NWM N.V. Group's business, including its ability to build or sustain business relationships with clients, and may cause low employee morale, regulatory censure or reduced access to, or an increase in the cost of, funding. Reputational risk may arise whenever there is a material lapse in standards of integrity, compliance, customer or operating efficiency and may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's ability to attract and retain clients. In particular, NWM N.V. Group's ability to attract and retain clients may be adversely affected by, amongst others: negative public opinion resulting from the actual or perceived manner in which NWM N.V. Group or any other member of NatWest Group conducts or modifies its business activities and operations, media coverage (whether accurate or otherwise), employee misconduct, NWM N.V. Group's financial performance, IT systems failures or cyberattacks, data breaches, financial crime, the level of direct and indirect government support for NatWest Group plc, or the actual or perceived practices in the banking and financial industry in general, or a wide variety of other factors.
Modern technologies, in particular online social networks and other broadcast tools that facilitate communication with large audiences in short time frames and with minimal costs, may also significantly increase and accelerate the impact of damaging information and allegations.
Although NWM N.V. Group has implemented a Reputational Risk Policy to improve the identification, assessment and management of customers and clients, transactions, products and issues which represent a reputational risk, NWM N.V. Group cannot be certain that it will be successful in avoiding damage to its business from reputational risk.
Legal, regulatory and conduct risk
NWM N.V. Group's businesses are subject to substantial regulation and oversight, which are constantly evolving and may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group.
NWM N.V. Group is subject to extensive laws, regulations, corporate governance practice and disclosure requirements, administrative actions and policies in each jurisdiction in which it operates. Many of these have been introduced or amended recently and are subject to further material changes, which may increase compliance and conduct risks, particularly as EU/EEA and UK laws may become more divergent and fragmented now that the Brexit transition period has ended. See also, 'Continuing uncertainty regarding the effects of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union may continue to adversely affect NWM Plc (NWM N.V.'s parent company) and its operating environment and NatWest Group plc (NWM N.V.'s ultimate parent company) and may have an indirect effect on NWM N.V. Group'.
In particular, NWM N.V. Group is subject to (i) direct prudential supervision by the DNB and indirect prudential supervision of the ECB; (ii) direct market conduct supervision by the AFM and indirect market conduct supervision by European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA); and (iii) supervision by DNB, as home state supervisor, in respect of NWM N.V. Group's branch offices in France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Sweden, and to supervision by local regulators in these jurisdictions, as host state supervisors, in respect of certain regulatory aspects of NWM N.V. Group's branch offices' operations that are subject to host state supervision (e.g. anti-money laundering laws). NWM N.V. Group expects government and regulatory intervention in the financial services industry to remain high for the foreseeable future.
Prudential regulatory requirements:
In recent years, regulators and governments have focused on reforming the prudential regulation of the financial services industry and the manner in which the business of financial services is conducted. Amongst others, measures have included: enhanced capital, liquidity and funding requirements, implementation of the UK ring-fencing regime, implementation and strengthening of the recovery and resolution framework applicable to financial institutions in The Netherlands, the UK, the EU and the US, financial industry reforms (including in respect of MiFID II), corporate governance requirements, restrictions on the compensation of senior management and other employees, enhanced data privacy and IT resilience requirements, enhanced regulations in respect of the provision of 'investment services and activities', enhanced regulations in respect of the provision of 'investment services and activities', and increased regulatory focus in certain areas, including conduct and duty of care, consumer protection and disputes regimes, outsourcing, anti-corruption, anti-money laundering, anti-corruption, anti-bribery, anti-tax evasion, financial crime, swap dealers payment systems, sanctions and anti-terrorism laws and regulations. This has resulted in NWM N.V. Group facing greater regulation and scrutiny in The Netherlands and the other countries in which it operates.
In addition, there is significant oversight by the competition authorities of the EU and the competition authorities of the jurisdictions which NWM N.V. Group operates in. The competitive landscape for banks and other financial institutions in the Europe is rapidly changing. Recent regulatory and legal changes have and may continue to result in new market participants and changed competitive dynamics in certain key areas.
Competition authorities, including the CMA, are currently also looking at and focusing more on how they can support competition and innovation in digital markets.
Regulatory requirements:
Recent regulatory changes, proposed or future developments and heightened levels of public and regulatory scrutiny in the EU have resulted in increased capital, funding and liquidity requirements, changes in the competitive landscape, changes in other regulatory requirements and increased operating costs, and have impacted, and will continue to impact, NWM N.V. Group's product offering and business models. For example, NWM N.V. Group is required to ensure operational continuity in resolution; the steps required to ensure such compliance entail significant costs, and also impose significant operational, legal and execution risks. Material consequences could arise should NWM N.V. Group be found to be non-compliant with these regulatory requirements.
Such changes may also result in an increased number of regulatory investigations and proceedings and have increased the risks relating to NWM N.V. Group's ability to comply with the applicable body of rules and regulations in the manner and within the time frames required.
Areas in which, and examples of where, governmental policies, regulatory and accounting changes and increased public and regulatory scrutiny could have an adverse impact (some of which could be material) on NWM N.V. Group include, but are not limited to:
· general changes in government, central bank, regulatory or competition policy, or changes in regulatory regimes that may influence investor decisions in the jurisdictions in which NWM N.V. Group operates;
· rules relating to foreign ownership, expropriation, nationalisation and confiscation of assets;
· new or increased regulations relating to customer data and privacy protection as well as IT controls and resilience, including the GDPR and the impact of the recent Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU) decision (known as Schrems II), in which the CJEU ruled that Privacy Shield (an EU/US data transfer mechanism) is now invalid, leading to more onerous due diligence requirements for the Group prior to sending personal data of its EU customers and employees to non-EEA countries, including the UK and the US;
· the introduction of, and changes to, taxes, levies or fees applicable to NWM N.V. Group's operations, such as the Dutch Withholding Tax Act 2021 (Wet bronbelasting 2021), the imposition of a financial transaction tax, changes in the scope and administration of the Dutch bank levy (bankenbelasting) levied pursuant to the Dutch Bank Levy Act (Wet bankenbelasting), changes in tax rates, increases in the bank corporation tax surcharge in the UK, restrictions on the tax deductibility of interest payments require increased payments of tax.
These and other recent regulatory changes, proposed or future developments and heightened levels of public and regulatory scrutiny in the UK, The Netherlands, the EU and the US have resulted in increased capital, funding and liquidity requirements, changes in the competitive landscape, changes in other regulatory requirements and increased operating costs, and have impacted, and will continue to impact, product offerings and business models. Any of these developments (including any failure to comply with new rules and regulations) could also have a significant impact on NWM N.V. Group's authorisations and licences, the products and services that NWM N.V. Group may offer, its reputation and the value of its assets, NWM N.V. Group's operations or legal entity structure, and the manner in which NWM N.V. Group conducts its business. Material consequences could arise should NWM N.V. Group be found to be non-compliant with these regulatory requirements. Regulatory developments may also result in an increased number of regulatory investigations and proceedings and have increased the risks relating to NWM N.V. Group's ability to comply with the applicable body of rules and regulations in the manner and within the time frames required. See also, 'NWM N.V. Group and NWM Plc are subject to various litigation matters, regulatory and governmental actions and investigations as well as remedial undertakings, the outcomes of which are inherently difficult to predict, and which could have an adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group'.
Changes in laws, rules or regulations, or in their interpretation or enforcement, or the implementation of new laws, rules or regulations, including contradictory or conflicting laws, rules or regulations by key regulators or policymakers in different jurisdictions, or failure by NWM N.V. Group to comply with such laws, rules and regulations, may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's business, results of operations and outlook. In addition, uncertainty and insufficient international regulatory coordination as enhanced supervisory standards are developed and implemented may adversely affect NWM N.V. Group's ability to engage in effective business, risk and capital management planning.
NWM N.V. Group and NWM Plc are subject to various litigation matters, regulatory and governmental actions and investigations as well as remedial undertakings, the outcomes of which are inherently difficult to predict, and which could have an adverse effect on NWM N.V. Group.
NWM N.V. Group's operations are diverse and complex and it operates in legal and regulatory environments that expose it to potentially significant legal proceedings, and civil, criminal, regulatory and governmental actions. NWM N.V. Group and NWM Plc have settled a number of legal and regulatory actions over the past several years but continue to be, and may in the future be, involved in such actions in the US, the UK, Europe and other jurisdictions.
NWM N.V. Group and /or NWM Plc are currently involved in a number of significant legal and regulatory actions, including criminal and civil investigations and proceedings and ongoing reviews (both formal and informal) by governmental law enforcement and other agencies and litigation proceedings, relating to, among other matters, the offering of securities, conduct in the foreign exchange market, the setting of benchmark rates such as LIBOR and related derivatives trading, the issuance, underwriting, and sales and trading of fixed-income securities (including government securities), product mis-selling, customer mistreatment, anti-money laundering, antitrust, VAT recovery and various other compliance issues. Legal and regulatory actions are subject to many uncertainties, and their outcomes, including the timing, amount of fines or settlements or the form of any settlements, which may be material and in excess of any related provisions, are often difficult to predict, particularly in the early stages of a case or investigation. NWM N.V. Group's expectation for resolution may change and substantial additional provisions and costs may be recognised in respect of any matter. For additional information relating to this and other legal and regulatory proceedings and matters to which NWM Group is currently exposed, see 'Litigation and regulatory matters' of Note 24 to the consolidated accounts on pages 82 and 83 for details of these matters.
Adverse outcomes or resolution of current or future legal or regulatory actions could have material collateral consequences for NWM N.V. Group's business and result in restrictions or limitations on NWM N.V. Group's operations. This in turn and/or the fines, settlement payments or penalties could adversely impact NWM N.V. Group's capital position or its ability to meet regulatory capital adequacy requirements.
Failure to comply with undertakings made by NWM N.V. Group to its regulators may result in additional measures or penalties being taken against NWM N.V. Group.
NWM N.V. Group may not effectively manage the transition of LIBOR and other IBOR rates to alternative risk free rates.
UK, Dutch, and other European and global regulators are driving the transition from the use of interbank offer rates (IBORs), including LIBOR, to alternative risk free rates (RFRs). Interest rate benchmark reform is a key priority of the Financial Stability Board, and working groups have been established in a number of jurisdictions to support the transition. In the UK, the FCA indicated that the availability of LIBOR beyond the end of 2021 cannot be guaranteed, major central banks and regulators, including the FCA, the Bank of England, the DNB and the AFM and the US Federal Reserve, have strongly urged market participants to transition to RFRs. NWM N.V. Group has exposure to IBORs, and continues to reference it in certain products, primarily derivatives and cash products. NWM N.V. Group has started to phase out its use of IBOR and has embedded appropriate fall-back mechanisms in most new IBOR activities, either through bilateral contract documentation, or under the ISDA fall-backs protocol. NWM N.V., along with many of its major counterparties, has already adhered to the ISDA IBOR fall-backs supplement and protocol, which establishes a clear, industry accepted, contractual process to manage the transition from IBORs to RFRs for derivative products.
NWM N.V. Group is actively engaged with customers and industry working groups to manage the risks relating to this exposure and explore ways to transition IBOR exposures to RFRs to the extent possible. Any economic impacts will be dependent on, inter alia, the establishment of deep and liquid RFR markets, the establishment of clear and consistent market conventions for all replacement products, as well as counterparties' willingness to accept, and transition to, these conventions. Furthermore, certain IBOR obligations may not be able to be changed thus resulting in fundamentally different economic outcomes than originally intended. The uncertainties around the timing and manner of transition to RFRs expose NWM N.V. Group, its clients and the financial services industry more widely to risk.
Examples of these risks may include: (i) legal risks relating to documentation for new and the majority of existing transactions (including, but not limited to, changes, lack of changes, or unclear contractual provisions); (ii) financial risks from any changes in valuation of financial instruments linked to impacted IBORs that may impact NWM N.V. Group's performance, including its cost of funds, and its risk management related financial models; (iii) pricing, interest rate or settlement risks, such as changes to benchmark rates could impact pricing, interest rate or settlement mechanisms on certain instruments; (iv) operational risks due to the requirement to adapt IT systems, trade reporting infrastructure and operational processes; and (v) conduct and litigation risks arising from communication regarding the potential impact on customers, and engagement with customers during the transition period, or non-acceptance by customers of replacement rates.
It is therefore difficult to determine to what extent the changes will affect the NWM N.V. Group, or the costs of implementing any relevant remedial action. Uncertainty as to the nature and extent of such potential changes, the take up of alternative reference rates or other reforms including the potential continuation of the publication of LIBOR, may adversely affect financial instruments using LIBOR as benchmarks. The implementation of any alternative RFRs may be impossible or impracticable under the existing terms of certain financial instruments and could have an adverse effect on the value of, return on and trading market for, certain financial instruments and on the NWM N.V. Group's profitability. There is also the risk of an adverse effect to reported performance arising from the transition rules established by accounting bodies, as the outcome of certain rules (as approved by the IASB) are still dependent on how the actual transition process is implemented.
LEI:
X3CZP3CK64YBHON1LE12 - NatWest Markets N.V.
2138005O9XJIJN4JPN90 - NatWest Group plc
RR3QWICWWIPCS8A4S074 - NatWest Markets Plc
Annual Financial Report - NatWest Markets NV07:04:4019 Feb 2021Results7046P