Critical corporate financial distress levels jump as economy faces post-pandemic reality

·    Concerns as the number of companies in critical financial distress increased to 1,891 in the first quarter of 2022, almost a fifth higher than the same period last year

·    The 19% year-on-year increase has been driven by a 51% jump in the construction sector and a 42% rise among bars and restaurants

·    Businesses in significant financial distress down 20% on the level a year ago at 581,596, though this is flat on the previous quarter

·    County Court Judgements - a warning sign of future insolvencies - up 157% to 22,552 in the quarter compared with a year ago; with March having seen the highest number in a single month for five years

·    Data from Begbies Traynor's "Red Flag Alert" points to a coming wave of business failures as the economy adjusts to the post-pandemic reality with Covid reliefs cut off and a rapid growth in inflation

The latest Begbies Traynor "Red Flag Alert" research, which has examined the financial health of British companies for the past 15 years, highlights the strain two years of extraordinary financial pressures have had on thousands of UK companies.

Helped through the pandemic and its aftershocks by state support, the report now reveals a 19% jump in the number of companies in critical financial distress with these measures cut off and costs spiralling.

The most recent County Court Judgements (CCJs) data revealed 11,673 rulings in March - up 179% on the monthly average for the previous two years - and the highest level in a single month for five years.

With companies struggling with rising inflation, coupled with the demands of repaying Government Covid support loans, there is now a growing risk of a wave of insolvencies affecting vulnerable British businesses.

Julie Palmer, partner at Begbies Traynor, warned that unless there is action to allow struggling businesses to mitigate the impact of these pressures, they risk being unable to continue to operate.

"The critical distress and CCJ data are likely predictors of a wave of insolvencies coming - it's just a case of when the dam holding it back finally bursts.

"The latest Government insolvency figures for March reinforce this worrying trend with creditors voluntary liquidations - the most common type of corporate insolvency - more than doubling compared to March 2021 and up 62% compared to March 2019.

"The Government's finances are themselves taking a hit from the increasing interest environment; they are simply not able to introduce further significant funding into the system, and they now have a choice to make. Do they rush to recover funds handed out during the pandemic to ensure there was a functioning economy afterwards? Or look for ways to control the number of businesses that fail?

"Having put so much money into protecting businesses over the past two years, ministers won't want to see it wasted as companies collapse, unable to repay their debts."

Ms Palmer said one way the Government could ease the pressure on embattled businesses while not writing off debts built up through measures such as the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) would be taking a longer-term view.

She continued: "I'd expect low-cost forms of further support, probably through leniency in repaying pandemic funding.

"We could see an approach similar to war bonds, with terms being extended as ministers follow the adage that a rolling loan gathers no loss.

"Taking a hard line on repaying CBILS and other loans would likely drive businesses over the edge, risking the billions fed into the economy being wasted, and the legacy of this support probably explains the year-on-year fall in significant financial distress."

Ric Traynor, executive chairman of Begbies Traynor, commented:

"Inflation has become a global issue, not just a domestic problem. The effects of increasing costs are now starting to take their toll on businesses and consumers alike. For the first time in more than a decade, inflation is the prime concern for businesses.

"This could mean that companies which have just been surviving, being kept alive only by government support, finally succumb to the inevitable.

"Additionally, consumer demand is likely to slow markedly as cost pressures pile up ahead of the anticipated increase in energy costs in October, and families reduce their appetite for spending accordingly. If these pressures take their toll on both corporate and personal finances, it could be particularly difficult in the latter quarters of this year. "

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Notes to Editors

"Significant distress" is defined as businesses with minor CCJs (of less than £5k) filed against them or which have been identified by Red Flag Alert's proprietary credit risk scoring system which screens companies for a sustained or marked deterioration in key financial ratios and indicators including those measuring working capital, contingent liabilities, retained profits and net worth.

"Critical distress" is defined as businesses with minor CCJs (of more than £5k) filed against them.

In England and Wales, County Court Judgments (CCJs) are legal decisions handed down by the County Court. Judgments for monetary sums are entered on the statutory Register of Judgments, Orders and Fines, which is checked by credit reference agencies to assess the creditworthiness of individuals and businesses.

About Red Flag Alert

Begbies Traynor's Red Flag Alert has been measuring and reporting corporate financial distress since 2004. It has become a benchmark on the underlying health of companies across every sector and region of the UK. 

Red Flag Alert's algorithm measures corporate distress signals, drawing on factual legal and financial data from a wide range of relevant sources, including intelligence from the UK's leading insolvency business, Begbies Traynor. The algorithm was refreshed in Q3 2017 to enhance the risk factors analysed in the data. The reported results have been backdated to ensure the consistency of comparative data.

The release refers to the numbers of companies experiencing 'Significant' problems, which are those with minor CCJs (of less than £5k) filed against them or which have been identified by Red Flag's proprietary credit risk scoring system which screens companies for a sustained or marked deterioration in key financial ratios and indicators including those measuring working capital, contingent liabilities, retained profits and net worth. 

Red Flag Alert is commercially available to all businesses, on an annual subscription basis, to help them better understand risk and exposure and help prepare them for the future. Further information about Red Flag Alert can be found at: www.redflagalert.com 

Economically active businesses exclude those that are flagged by Companies House as being, Non-trading, Listed for Strike off / Strike off pending, Insolvent or Dissolved. Companies, where there is insufficient information available for RFA to assign a health rating, are also excluded.

Begbies Traynor Group

Begbies Traynor Group plc is a leading business recovery, financial advisory and property services consultancy, providing services nationally from a comprehensive network of UK locations. The group has more than 900 staff and partners and the professional staff include licensed insolvency practitioners, accountants, chartered surveyors and lawyers.

The group's services include:

Business recovery and financial advisory

Corporate and personal insolvency - we handle the largest number of corporate appointments in the UK, principally serving the mid-market and smaller companies.

Corporate finance - buy and sell side support on private company transactions.

Financial advisory - forensic accounting and investigations, debt advisory, business and financial restructuring, due diligence and transactional support.

Property advisory and transactional services

Valuations - valuation of property, businesses, machinery and business assets.

Property consultancy, management and planning - building consultancy, commercial property management, specialist insurance and vacant property risk management, transport planning and design.

Transactional services - sale of property, machinery and other business assets through physical and online auctions; business sales agency; commercial property agency focussed on northern and eastern England.

Further information can be accessed via the group's website at www.begbies-traynorgroup.com/investor-relations