Analyst presentation

Ceres Power Holdings plc will be hosting a live webcast for analysts and investors on 15 April 2024 at 09.30 GMT. To register your interest in participating, please go to: https://www.investormeetcompany.com/ceres-power-holdings-plc/register-investor.

For further information visit www.ceres.tech or contact:

About Ceres

Ceres is a leading developer of clean energy technology: electrolysis for the creation of green hydrogen and fuel cells for power generation. Its asset-light, licensing model has seen it establish partnerships with some of the world's largest companies, such as Bosch, Doosan, Delta and Weichai. Ceres' solid oxide technology supports greater electrification of our energy systems and produces green hydrogen at high-efficiencies as a route to decarbonise emissions-intensive industries such as steelmaking, ammonia and future fuels. Ceres is listed on the London Stock Exchange ("LSE") (LSE: CWR) and is classified by the LSE Green Economy Mark, which recognises listed companies that derive more than 50% of their activity from the green economy. Read more on our website www.ceres.tech or follow us on LinkedIn.

Chief Executive's Statement

This past year was tough economically, and particularly for the clean energy and hydrogen industries. The Hydrogen Council's December update pointed to "headwinds that have caused a slower development of the global hydrogen industry than had previously been expected". Against the backdrop of increased energy prices and high inflation, many companies delayed investment decisions and share prices were significantly impacted. Ceres was not immune from this wider trend.

We have positioned ourselves to emerge stronger from the recent downturn in the industry. Amidst project delays, regulatory uncertainty and higher financing costs, Ceres has made careful decisions about where to deploy capital and resources, and where to invest for growth based upon where the biggest opportunities present themselves for the future of our business in an evolving global market. In 2021 we made the strategic decision to invest in solid oxide electrolyser cell ("SOEC") technology to access the market for green hydrogen and significantly increase the addressable market for our technology in addition to fuel cells. This has been the right decision for Ceres' long-term strategy, as evidenced by the recent signing of our first SOEC licence partner, and the challenge now is to accelerate our SOEC development while also delivering on our existing solid oxide fuel cell ("SOFC") business.

Progress with fuel cells and existing licensee partners

We have built our business with a focus on our fuel cell technology and on our existing licence partners. In 2023 together with our partner Doosan we completed the factory acceptance testing of all equipment for the highly automated factory at Saemangeum in South Korea. Commissioning is on track to complete in the second half of 2024, and we expect first production of SOFC systems and royalties to Ceres to follow in 2025.

Our partnership with Bosch remains strong and we have developed the next generation stack technology to support scale up of their facility in Bamberg, Germany. Major equipment is being installed in 2024 with support from significant European grant funding of approximately €160 million. However, timelines for products to market have not been supported by the geopolitical backdrop in Europe with sentiment moving away from reliance on gas and high energy prices impacting the economic case. We expect production will be slower to coincide with Bosch's product launch which is still undergoing development and validation of our second generation stack technology in the field in 2024.

Our relationship with Weichai remains strong and they are developing 75kW stationary power units based on the Ceres technology targeting the distributed power market. The planned three-way China joint venture ("JV") has not been concluded in 2023 despite the relationship between Bosch, Weichai and Ceres remaining positive. It is now our belief that the proposed JV is unlikely to be completed in its current form. However, we are evaluating other options with Weichai to address the Chinese market and we will provide an update on our progress at the appropriate time.

Green hydrogen strategy

Over our 20 years of operation, we have made several key strategic transitions as the market has evolved, going from a domestic heat and power product company to a licensing business for power systems and now with the addition of SOEC providing electrolyser technology for green hydrogen production.

License opportunities for SOFC have given us a great foundation, and the market for green hydrogen produced by electrolysis is a high growth market that is predicted to be significantly larger over time. New licensee partners are now likely to come from the markets for green hydrogen where we are seeing robust future demand for our technology. Therefore, we are accelerating the pace of development and commercialisation of SOEC, whilst ensuring we maintain our leading position in SOFC markets.

Reflecting strong interest in our technology for green hydrogen production, we were pleased to start the new year by signing our first licence partner for both green hydrogen and power generation with Delta Electronics in Taiwan, a global leader in power electronics supplying the information and communication technology industry and operating manufacturing sites globally. The agreement includes revenue of £43 million to Ceres through technology transfer, development licence fees and engineering services, of which approximately half is expected to be recognised as revenue in 2024. There is potential for additional revenue from the sale of Ceres development stacks to Delta and the agreement also includes future royalty payments to Ceres on future commercial production and sale to end customers by Delta. Technology introduction and factory construction will start from 2024 and the initial production by Delta is expected to start by the end of 2026.

We anticipate that licensing revenues from new partners will offset near-term delays in fuel cell royalties and we have confidence at this early stage of the year to approximately double revenues in 2024, compared to 2023, based on existing contracts. In addition to top line growth through near-term licence revenues, we are also managing our cash, directing more of our investment to growing our SOEC business alongside SOFC. Through the licensing model, these in turn translate into longer-term recurring revenues with royalties from electrolyser manufacturing representing additional upside to royalties from our SOFC business.

Market opportunity

We see China, Europe, South Korea and the wider Asian markets being among the largest markets for power generation - areas for which we have good coverage with our existing SOFC licensees and further complemented by the addition of Delta.  

Across the global market, we believe that green hydrogen production from SOEC will play an essential role in industrial decarbonisation in order to meet net zero. Hard-to-abate industries such as green steel and ammonia will be the first to develop followed by synthetic fuels. Ceres' SOEC technology offers distinct advantages of efficiency when coupled with industrial processes where it can utilise waste heat, and so naturally couples with the exothermic Haber-Bosch process used globally to produce ammonia as well as the heat-intensive requirements for steel production.

Many of the top ammonia and steel regions - India, Australia, Europe, the Middle East and North America amongst them - have announced green hydrogen strategies, and several have gone further to publish derivative strategies for ammonia and steel. In fact, green steel is a product that in the coming years will go a significant way to delivering a low carbon Ceres stack. In a world where traceability is becoming ever more important, soon all products will be measured on their "carbon footprint" and we believe Ceres' technology, which is made from common steel and material sets, will have a significant competitive advantage over technologies which utilise hard to source rare earths and more expensive materials.

What is clear is that the future demand for electrolysis for green hydrogen exceeds supply, stimulating new entrants into the market who need access to the best technology and can scale manufacturing through global supply chains. This ideally positions Ceres for growth as the only company offering access to world-leading solid oxide technology under licence. Ceres has moved to place commercial representatives in the US, Asia, Europe and India over the past 18 months, and we will continue to build commercial strength and credibility and consider presence in other markets with the aim to sign new licence partners that will convert longer term into a significant share of the SOEC market for green hydrogen.

Foundation of research and innovation

Ceres has a culture that is founded on science, engineering and individuals who are highly talented and passionate about the Company's purpose - to deliver clean energy for a clean world. We would not be the business we are today without the foundation of research and innovation generated over many years by our industry-leading team.

Technology alone is not enough and our success depends on our ability to be responsive to the changing market and to mature from being a technology-led organisation to one laser focused on commercialisation through global partnerships with some of the world's leading manufacturing companies. Hence, we are building on the foundations of our SOFC business and the experience gained in maturing and scaling our technology, targeting new partners and moving at pace to capture the market.

Deep expertise in solid oxide technology has allowed us to prosecute an ambitious programme for hydrogen over the past 24 months, strengthening our conviction that SOEC offers distinct advantages of efficiency and cost, with potential to reduce capital and operational project costs to produce green hydrogen by 25%. Our first megawatt-scale electrolyser demonstrator has arrived at our partner Shell's R&D centre in Bangalore, India, where in collaboration with Shell, we will validate the performance, cost and operational functionality of the technology. Our technology team is now focused on developing the next SOEC product concept for a 4-5MW modularised system, which is supporting further commercial discussions and will facilitate the deployment of larger installations essential to meet the scale challenge for the decarbonisation of industry.

The year ahead

Green hydrogen will not be a silver bullet, but it does have an important role to play in the decarbonisation of industry, where it can deliver obvious and economic advantages. Advancements in electrolyser technology, manufacturing economies of scale, design improvements and further reduction in renewable power costs will all make electrolytic hydrogen more viable.

Despite current disruptions in Europe, we believe that natural gas will have a sustained role to play in the decarbonisation of the global energy system, as China and Asia more broadly transition away from dependence on coal. We have strong power partners through Doosan, Weichai and now Delta in the region and when it comes to manufacturing at scale, the Asian economies excel.

We've made a strong start to 2024 with revenues for the year expected to be approximately double that of 2023. We are well positioned for growth with new partnerships as a result of our investment into SOEC for electrolysis. Our SOFC partners are continuing to scale manufacturing and build global supply chains which can service both our SOFC and SOEC markets.

At Ceres we continue to focus on the levers within our control: careful capital allocation, investment in valuable skills and building strong and sustainable partnerships that have ambition to play a meaningful role in our future energy system. I look forward to providing further updates on our progress over the course of the year and as ever, we thank you for your support.

Phil Caldwell

Chief Executive Officer

Financial Review

Revenue

The Group reported revenue of £22.3 million in 2023, compared with £19.8 million¹ in the prior year. Most of the revenue was from existing partners Bosch and Doosan through ongoing development activities as we support them with factory build and prepare for commercial launch. Revenue is a combination of development licence revenue, engineering services and the provision of technology hardware. £21.5 million of the revenue in 2023 relates to SOFC (2022: £19.6 million¹). Our SOEC business segment recognised revenue in the year of £0.8 million (2022: £0.2 million), the majority of which is licence revenue from signing a collaboration with Bosch and Linde announced in March 2023 to validate our electrolysis technology. Revenue from the Shell test evaluation partnership will commence once the demonstrator is commissioned at Shell's facility in Bangalore, India in 2024.

Gross margin

Gross profit of £13.6 million in the year (2022: £10.7 million¹) increased when compared to the prior year due to the impact of high margin licence reallocations from the restatements impacting 2022. There was a similar level of revenue and revenue mix in terms of the proportion of engineering services and hardware. Consequently, gross margins of 61% also improved compared to prior year (2022: 54%¹). These margins remain much higher than industry norms due to the licensing nature of Ceres' business model.

Other operating income

Other operating income increased significantly in the year to £3.7 million (2022: £1.3 million), which reflects the level of R&D Expenditure Credits ("RDEC") claimed in the year compared to the prior year. As of 2023 all Ceres' R&D tax relief is in the form of RDEC as Ceres no longer qualifies for SME R&D tax credit schemes. In 2022, SME R&D tax credit was recognised within the taxation credit.

Operating costs

Operating costs increased to £76.6 million (2022: £66.1 million¹) as Ceres increased investment in core technology to drive future growth, including the second generation of stack and a significant investment in the megawatt-scale electrolyser. The largest category of spend is R&D, which increased to £54.0 million (2022: £48.5 million¹). The average number of persons employed by the Group in the year increased to 590 (2022: 536). Now that we have critical mass of engineers, scientists, electrochemists and other technical employees, we don't anticipate headcount increases in 2024.

Finance income and expense

Finance income increased significantly to £7.1 million (2022: £2.8 million), which reflects improved interest rates on our bank deposits and short-term investments in money market funds in a higher interest rate environment. We maintain a stringent treasury policy to balance appropriate market returns with the security of funds including only high investment grade, and diversification of, financial institutions. Finance expense increased to £1.3 million (2022: £0.3 million) mostly due to a foreign exchange losses of £0.8 million on currencies held in non-sterling denominations (2022: gain of £0.2 million).

Taxation (charge)/credit

Taxation charge in 2023 of £0.4 million reflects payment of withholding taxes from overseas earnings. This compares to a taxation credit of £3.9 million in 2022, which represents SME R&D tax credits, as described in the other operating income section above.

Loss for the financial year

The Group posted a loss of £54.0 million (2022: £47.6 million¹) for the year, which reflects the increase in operating costs and no taxation credit in 2023, partly offset by higher other operating income and interest income compared to 2022.

Adjusted EBITDA

Adjusted EBITDA loss for 2023 increased to £50.3 million (2022: £45.7 million¹). Adjusted EBITDA is a non-statutory measure and is detailed in the Alternative Performance Measures section in this review. The increased loss is primarily due to the increased operating costs explained above.

Reconciliation between operating loss and adjusted EBITDA

Management believes that presenting Adjusted EBITDA loss allows for a more direct comparison of the Group's performance against its peers and provides a better understanding of the underlying trading performance of the Group by excluding non-recurring, irregular and one-off costs. The Group currently defines Adjusted EBITDA loss as the operating loss for the year excluding depreciation and amortisation charges, share-based payment charges, unrealised losses on forward contracts and exchange gains/losses.

Total capital investments

Total capital investments comprises capital expenditure (property, plant and equipment) and capitalised development (intangible assets). In 2023, total capital investments declined to £14.7 million (2022: £18.2 million) due to a combination of reducing investment requirements for our Manufacturing Innovation Centre in Redhill, a deferral of some test capacity expansion from 2023 to 2024, and a prioritisation of spend as we emphasised cash discipline during the year.

Working capital movements

During 2023 working capital decreased by £10.0 million (2022: increase of £3.0m^1,2), which had a favourable impact to reduce the cash outflow in 2023. The two largest components of this was the reduction of Trade and other receivables by £7.3 million, including significant invoice payments from partners in January 2023, and a £2.9 million reduction in inventories during the year that partly reflects the consumption of first generation stacks, and an increased focus matching our pilot plant production levels to partner demand. The net movement of contract assets and contract liabilities was a decrease in net liabilities of £1.1 million.

Cash outflow

Cash outflow (change in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments) was £42.4 million (2022: £67.3 million). This improvement, despite the increase in the Adjusted EBITDA loss, has driven by the reduction in working capital, reduced capital investments and, to a lesser extent, increased finance income.

Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments

The Group ends the financial year in a strong position with £140.0 million in cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments (2022: £182.3 million) to support future investment as we drive revenue growth, manage costs and expenditure in a disciplined way, and track towards profit and cashflow break‑even.

Outlook

We end 2023 with a strong financial position and continue to invest across the business to build a sustainable competitive advantage in highly differentiated solid oxide technology. As we move into 2024, we expect revenues to approximately double compared to 2023, based on current contracts with existing partners and licensees including Bosch, Doosan, Weichai, Delta, Shell, Linde and others. Signing additional licence contracts in the year represents potential upside to this outlook, and although the timing of these incremental opportunities is uncertain, we are well-placed for future growth from both existing and new partnership prospects.