Geiger Counter Limited Plc 

Monthly Investor Report - 27^th March 2025

(All Factsheet data is at 28 February 2025)

The full monthly factsheet is now available on the Company's website and a summary can be found below. 

NCIM - Geiger Counter Ltd - Fund Page for Geiger Counter Ltd

Enquiries: 

For the Investment Manager 

CQS (UK) LLP 

Craig Cleland 

0207 201 5368 

For the Company Secretary and Administrator 

R&H Fund Services (Jersey) Limited

Jane De Barros/Katie De La Cour

01534 825259/01534 825337 

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Fund Description 

The objective of Geiger Counter Limited is to provide investors with the potential for capital growth through investment primarily in the securities of companies involved in the exploration, development and production of energy, predominantly within the uranium industry. Up to 30% of the value of the Company's investment portfolio may be invested in other resource- related companies from outside the energy sector.

Portfolio Managers 

Keith Watson and Robert Crayfourd 

Key Advantages for the Investor 

·      Access to mining assets in the uranium sector

·      May benefit from embedded subscription share

·      Low correlation to major asset classes

Key Fund Facts¹ 

Ordinary Share and NAV Performance² 

Commentary³ 

 Sentiment towards uranium mining equities was negatively impacted by the potential for a

possible Russia-Ukraine cease-fire and possible easing in Russian energy sanctions, including the US ban on importing Russian enriched fuel. Equities fell 20%, although this was in stark contrast to the minor 1.2% decline in the spot U3O8 (Uranium) price in February. Given bi-partisan support to implement the US ban on Russian fuel imports, the U3O8 price reaction appears the more appropriate response. In addition, a ceasefire could ease tightness in the nuclear fuel supply chain, as Russia controls 22% of global conversion capacity, the current bottleneck. We believe the more recent spot price weakness has been driven by geopolitical uncertainty and a sale of Kazakh material. In comparison the term price, on which 75% of uranium is sold, has remained stable and we believe provides a better basis on which to value uranium equities.

An escalation in US-led trade tariffs that dampened the outlook for economic growth was also

accompanied by news that US President Trump and Russian President Putin could meet in Saudi Arabia. This raised the possibility of an end to the conflict in the Ukraine and that sanctions against Russian energy exports, including uranium, could be lifted. Energy markets were also weighed down ahead of the scheduled OPEC+ gathering in early March, at which the oil producing countries could commence unwinding of its voluntary production quotas. Over the month, crude oil and Asian liquified natural gas (LNG) benchmark prices declined between 4-5%. However, while energy commodities were broadly softer, the U3O8 (Uranium) price was less affected, and the spot price ended February down a modest 1.2% at $63.75/lb. The market appeared to be shrugging off any prospect that the US ban on the importation of enriched Russian reactor fuel could be rescinded. Also notable was the increase in US regional gas prices as the threat of tariffs being applied to Canadian imports, during a period of unusually low seasonal inventory, contributed to a jump in the US natural gas prices of c.25%. Importantly, although the Trump administration has dispensed with any net zero messaging, it does appear to view all energy resources as strategic, particularly stable forms of energy generation such as nuclear power. The US-led trade war may only serve to heighten the requirement to secure energy, motivating ongoing life extensions across the existing global reactor fleet in established markets. This will likely support China's significant new build pipeline which will see reactors rolled-out at a rate of up to 10 per year.

During the month, Denison announced that it had been informed that a court hearing date to ratify its Wheeler River project is scheduled to take place in mid-December 2025. Assuming a prompt approval decision, construction for the project could start in early-2026. Markets interpreted a similar outcome occurring for NexGen's Rook I project, equivalent to a year's delay versus the Q1- Q2 2024 guidance. The news weighed on sentiment with both stocks declining c.20% over the month. We believe the delay in production will add significant tension to the market which is already in deficit. This may be extremely relevant to prospective western utilities whose fuel inventories, at approximately 2 years requirements, are running at close to "just-in-time" levels, equivalent to the time it takes to produce reactor fuel.

Despite U3O8's spot price proving relatively stable in February, related equities experienced a significant sell-off as speculative holders focussed on a potential relaxation in the US-Russian ban. As a result, the Company NAV declined 21.9% over the month compared to a 16.5% sterling decline registered by the Solactive Pure Play Uranium Index.

Though uranium mining equities performance is highly correlated with the spot U3O8 price, the majority of product is sold under longer-term contracts. In this context, it is notable that the February-end spot price of $63.75/lb compared to a term price in excess of $80/lb. It is worth noting that there is press speculation that the wind-up of the Kazakh Physical Uranium Fund holding of 2.6Mlbs may have contributed to the recent spot price weakness. Normally these markets are closely linked as traders can buy spot material and sell via the term market, crystalising a risk-free gain. This relationship appears to have broken down in February, which has frozen broader volumes as utilities are reticent to pay higher than spot and sellers unwilling to sell below term. In general, uncertainty has historically caused utilities to sit on the side lines, which appears to be evident today.

CQS (UK) LLP

4th Floor, One Strand, London WC2N 5HR, United Kingdom

T: +44 (0) 20 7201 6900 | F: +44 (0) 20 7201 1200

CQS (US), LLC

152 West 57th Street, 40th Floor, New York, NY 10019, US

T: +1 212 259 2900 | F: +1 212 259 2699

Tavistock Communications

18 St. Swithin's Lane, London EC4N 8AD

T: +44 20 7920 3150 | [email protected]

Sources: ¹R&H Fund Services (Jersey) Limited, as at the last business day of the month indicated at the top of this report. ²R&H Fund Services Limited/DataStream, as at the last business day of the month indicated at the top of this report, total return performance net of fees and expenses based on bid prices. These include historic returns and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Please read the important legal notice at the end of this document. ³Market data sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated. The Fund may since have exited some or all of the positions detailed in the commentary. ⁴ BMO, UxC, Company data September 2023. ⁵ www.eia.gov. ⁶CQS, as at the last business day of the month indicated at the top of this report. For methodology details see Article 4(3) of Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD) and Articles 6, 7, 9 and 10 of Delegated Regulation 231/2013. ⁷CQS, as at the last business day of the month indicated at the top of this report. For methodology details see Article 4(3) of Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD) and Articles 6, 8, 9, 10 and 11 of Delegated Regulation 231/2013.