3 October 2022

Rainbow Rare Earths Limited

("Rainbow" or "the Company")

LSE: RBW

Preliminary Economic Assessment Confirms Robust Economics for Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project

Rainbow Rare Earths announces the results of the Preliminary Economic Assessment ("PEA")[1] for the Company's Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project in South Africa, marking an important milestone in the project's development. The PEA demonstrates a long life and financially robust opportunity for Phalaborwa to become a significant supplier of high purity rare earth oxides to the rapidly expanding permanent magnet market, to support global decarbonisation and the growing demand for electric vehicles and offshore wind turbines. The PEA was conducted by METC Engineering, the minerals processing engineering company based in Johannesburg, with key contributions from independent consultants as required.

Key highlights, an overview, and the executive summary are provided below, with the report available on the Company's website at www.rainbowrareearths.com/investors/results-reports-presentations/. An investor presentation will be held on 5 October to discuss results of the PEA, see further details below.

PEA highlights

·    Total production of 26,208 tonnes of separated magnet rare earth oxides[2] with a weighted average sales value of US$137.92/kg[3] generating US$3.6 billion of revenue over 14.2 years.

·    Under the base case scenario,[4] the 2.2 million tonne per annum processing operation underscores the very robust project economics:

o  Post tax NPV₁₀ of US$627 million.[5]

o  Post tax IRR of 40%.

o  Average annual revenue of US$254.8 million; US$117.91 per tonne of gypsum processed.

o  Operating costs averaging US$33.86/kg of separated magnet rare earth oxides are expected to be one of the lowest of all Western rare-earth projects and current producers.

o  Average EBITDA of US$192.2 million per annum, delivering an EBITDA operating margin of 75%.[6]

o  Capital expenditure of US$295.5 million, with payback period of 2 years; significantly below that of a traditional hard rock rare earth mining project.

·    Using 2022 year to date ("YTD") average rare earth prices (28% higher than base case), the PEA delivers an:

o  EBITDA operating margin over 80%

o  NPV₁₀ of US$934 million and a payback of 1.7 years.

·    Using long-term rare earth price forecasts provided by Argus Media Group ("Argus"), underpinned by compelling supply/demand fundamentals, the PEA delivers an NPV₁₀ over US$1 billion.

·    The positive results of the PEA support the continued development of Phalaborwa, with the next steps including the publication of a resource update and the definition of a work programme for a feasibility study.

Rainbow Rare Earths CEO, George Bennett, commented: "Establishing a base case NPV₁₀ of US$627 million, an IRR of 40%, an average EBITDA operating margin of 75%, and a payback period of only 2 years, this PEA corroborates our long-held view of Phalaborwa's enormous potential as a low capital intensity, high margin, near-term rare earth development project. The base case financial model presents a robust project with low sensitivity to costs, which is particularly relevant in the current inflationary environment, and which can generate strong returns in any foreseeable rare earth oxide pricing environment.

At 2022 year-to-date average prices (which are around 28% higher than the base case), the economics are exceptionally strong with an NPV of US$934 million and a payback of 1.7 years.

As a brownfield site, the development of Phalaborwa provides us with a significant opportunity to make positive environmental, social and economic impacts.

The successful completion of this PEA represents not only a breakthrough step in the development of Phalaborwa, demonstrating the viability of this opportunity, but also underscores the broader potential to use our unique IP and technology to extract separated rare earth oxides from other phosphogypsum sources on a global scale.

Leveraging the expertise we have built up at Phalaborwa, we aim to accelerate the shift in our business model to processing rare earths from secondary sources. At a time when governments around the world are designating rare earths as critical minerals, with the EU stating an anticipated fivefold increase in demand by 2030, our strategy aims to facilitate near-term access to these elements which are so fundamental to global decarbonisation. Our focus on phosphogypsum as a source of magnet rare earths importantly differentiates Rainbow from a risk perspective when compared with traditional hard rock rare earth mining companies.

I believe Phalaborwa's PEA accurately reflects the rigour and expertise we apply to project assessment. As we progress to a feasibility study at Phalaborwa, I am confident that we have the right team, skills, and technology to unlock this valuable source and contribute to a responsible, independent, Western rare earths supply chain."

Investor presentation

Rainbow will host a live presentation via the Investor Meet Company platform on Wednesday 5 October 2022 at 10:00am BST to discuss the PEA. The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Questions can be submitted pre-event via your Investor Meet Company dashboard up until 9am the day before the meeting or at any time during the live presentation.

Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and add to meet RAINBOW RARE EARTHS LIMITED via: https://www.investormeetcompany.com/rainbow-rare-earths-limited/register-investor. Investors who already follow RAINBOW RARE EARTHS LIMITED on the Investor Meet Company platform will automatically be invited.

Rainbow's CEO, George Bennett, will also be presenting on the London South East Investor Webinar on Tuesday 4 October 2022. The webinar will run from 18:00 - 20:00 BST. Following the presentation, attendees will have the opportunity to ask questions. Please use the Zoom link below to register for this webinar:

https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/6316644539142/WN_RNi7eUm2SHSgYwXQ5F332g

PEA overview

The PEA was based on processing 2.2 million tonnes per annum of phosphogypsum over a 14.2-year project life to deliver 26,208 tonnes of separated magnet rare earth oxides at an average cost of US$33.86/kg. This delivers an exceptional 75% EBITDA operating margin at the base case basket price of US$137.92 per kg, with first production assumed for 2026, established on near term forecasts well below both 2022 YTD average prices and long-term market forecasts.

Using 2022 YTD average rare earth prices or long-term rare earth price forecasts provided by Argus delivers stronger returns.  Phalaborwa's strong margins are underpinned by a low operating cost base, with a very low sensitivity to changes in costs.

Rare earth price sensitivity

The sensitivity to rare earth prices has been calculated by reference to a number of rare earth price scenarios. The key financial metrics of the Phalaborwa Project under these different scenarios are set out below:

Applying the 2022 YTD average rare earth oxide prices to the project delivers an NPV of US$933.7 million with an IRR of 51% and a payback period of 1.7 years. Long-term price forecasts received from Argus, underpinned by robust magnet rare earths supply and demand fundamentals, suggest a higher long-term basket price, demonstrating that the project can be expected to generate strong returns in a market supported by strong demand growth for the separated magnet rare earth oxides produced.

The sensitivities also show that using a lower average rare earth oxide price, such as the average prices from 2021, deliver a robust project with solid operating margins and a fast payback period. This demonstrates that the Phalaborwa Project can be expected to generate strong returns in any foreseeable rare earth oxide pricing environment.

Cost sensitivity

The sensitivity of the project economics to cost have been modelled to understand the sensitivity of the project economics to energy costs, overall operating costs, capital costs and the ZAR:US$ exchange rate.  The key financial metrics of the Phalaborwa Project under these different scenarios are set out below:

1.        Compared to base case scenario set out above

With reasons detailed below, the project is less capital intensive than many global rare earth development projects. In addition to this, the strong margins generated by Phalaborwa are underpinned by a low operating cost base. This is possible due to the unique nature of the project, which excludes many of the usual energy intensive steps associated with a traditional hard rock mining project (thereby limiting energy costs to 21% of overall operating costs).

·    There is no requirement for hard rock mining, including waste stripping, which usually represents a large proportion of the cost base for a traditional hard rock mine. The cost of hydraulic reclamation of the gypsum stacks is instead comparable to the cost of feeding a processing plant from an ore stockpile.

·    There is no cost associated with crushing and grinding ore, which normally forms a substantial part of the energy use and processing costs for a traditional hard rock mine.

·    The rare earth minerals contained in the gypsum stacks have been chemically cracked by the historic phosphoric acid production process. This allows the Phalaborwa Project to produce separated rare earth oxides in a single processing plant instead of producing a mineral concentrate which requires chemical cracking in a dedicated plant before feeding into a separation plant.

As detailed in the PEA, the phosphogypsum contained in the two stacks at Phalaborwa can be reclaimed using conventional high-pressure monitoring techniques as commonly used on reclamation projects in South Africa. A viable flowsheet for economic extraction and purification with an unoptimised recovery of 65% of the rare earth elements can be implemented.

This process flowsheet utilises a pre-treatment process to control impurities, which can then be recovered for re-use later, recycling any dissolved rare earths back into the process. Pre-treated phosphogypsum and solution are forwarded to a counter-current rare earth acid leach designed to extract maximum rare earths from the phosphogypsum solids before the residue is thickened, filtered, and disposed of by dry stacking. The pregnant solution from the rare earth leach is treated in a rapid consolidation process that delivers a highly concentrated rare earth solution to the refining section, where it is treated in a continuous, bulk rare earth ion-exchange process, followed by the separation of target rare earth elements by continuous ion chromatography, nanofiltration, precipitation, and calcining.

In addition to delivering a product into the increasingly important green economy, the PEA has demonstrated the project's crucial role in environmental remediation. It also highlights the potential for significant social and economic benefits to the town of Phalaborwa and the surrounding communities. Studies at Phalaborwa have highlighted the environmental advantages of the project, which include very low levels of radioactivity (exempting Phalaborwa from radioactivity regulation) and the ability to neutralise the existing water from the stacks for re-use in a closed circuit as plant process water. In processing material from the existing gypsum stacks at Phalaborwa, the aim is to remove existing environmental liabilities and redeposit benign gypsum on a new stack, built according to International Finance Corporation ("IFC") Performance Standards and Equator Principles. The PEA highlights Phalaborwa's excellent existing infrastructure, both in terms of physical facilities at site which can be updated, but also access to power, local production of key reagents and a skilled workforce.

Following the publication of the PEA Rainbow intends to advance the project to feasibility study, identify all permits required for the Project to be developed, engage with the relevant authorities to expedite permitting and undertake further process optimisation tests culminating in an extensive process pilot plant operation. A resource update is also expected for Phalaborwa following drilling work undertaken in June 2022.

Market Abuse Regulation ("MAR") Disclosure

This announcement contains inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of the Market Abuse Regulation (EU) 596/2014 as it forms part of UK domestic law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 ("MAR"), and is disclosed in accordance with the Company's obligations under Article 17 of MAR.

For further information, please contact:

Notes to Editors:

Rainbow's strategy is to identify near-term, secondary rare earths production opportunities. Meeting escalating demand for critical minerals needed for global decarbonisation, we are focused on producing the magnet rare earth metals neodymium and praseodymium ("NdPr"), dysprosium and terbium. With our strong operating experience, proven project development experience, unique intellectual property and diversified portfolio, Rainbow will develop a responsible rare earths supply chain to drive the green energy transition.

The Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project, located in South Africa, comprises an Inferred Mineral Resource Estimate of 30.7Mt at 0.43% TREO contained within unconsolidated gypsum stacks derived from historic phosphate hard rock mining. High value NdPr oxide represents 29.1% of the total contained rare earth oxides, with economic Dysprosium and Terbium oxide credits enhancing the overall value of the rare earth basket in the stacks. The rare earths are contained in chemical form in the gypsum stacks, which allows high-value separated rare earth oxides to be produced in a single processing plant at site with lower operating costs than a typical rare earth mineral project.

PEA Executive Summary

1.      Introduction

The Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project (the Project) offers a long life, and financially robust, opportunity to become a significant supplier of high purity rare earth oxides to the rapidly expanding permanent magnet market.

Apart from delivering a product into the increasingly important green economy, the Project has strong environmental credentials in terms of reducing legacy risks (from previous operations on site) to an environmentally sensitive area. The Project development will be undertaken fully in line with International Finance Corporation Performance Standards and the Equator Principles.

The Project's rare earths resource is contained in two phosphogypsum stacks which are the waste from historic phosphoric acid production on the site, which ceased in 2014. The Project is located on an industrial site adjacent to the mining town of Phalaborwa in South Africa and benefits from excellent national, regional, local and site-specific infrastructure. The industrial nature of the Project provides considerable advantages over similar mining projects with the ability to produce rare earth oxides directly from the large resource in a single process. Rainbow Rare Earths Limited (Rainbow) has developed a process to extract the rare earths from the host phosphogypsum through an extensive process test work program conducted at highly regarded international laboratories, unlocking the value of the Project.

Following the publication of the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) Rainbow intends to advance the Project to feasibility study, identify all permits required for the Project to be developed, engage with the relevant authorities to expedite permitting and undertake further process optimisation tests culminating in an extensive process pilot plant operation. The PEA envisages first production in 2026.

2.      Key Economic Parameters

The key economic parameters for the Project base case are presented in Table 1.

Table 1: Summary of Base Case Project Economic Parameters

The base case uses the projected rare earth oxides price for 2023, lower than the average price for 2022 to date or long-term forecast prices received from Argus as set out in the table below:

Table 2: Rare Earth Oxide Prices Used

The majority of the capital and operating costs are incurred in South African Rands (ZAR). These have been converted in the base case at an exchange rate of US$1.00 : ZAR16.50. A corporate tax of 27% has been allowed for in the economic analysis.

Sensitivity analyses for variations in rare earth prices have been calculated by reference to both historical and forecast prices. The results demonstrate that the project can be expected to generate strong returns in a market underpinned by strong demand growth for the separated magnet rare earth oxides that will be produced. The sensitivity of the economics to capital cost, operating cost, and US$:ZAR exchange rate have also been modelled, demonstrating that the Project is not sensitive to changes in costs due to the strong EBITDA margins generated. The results of the sensitivity analysis is set out in the table below:

Table 3: Sensitivity Analysis

3.      Project Location and Infrastructure

The Phalaborwa Rare Earths Project is located within the jurisdiction of the Ba-Phalaborwa Local Municipality in the Limpopo Province of the Republic of South Africa. Phalaborwa is a significant mining and industrial centre located approximately 500 km or 5 hours' drive from Johannesburg's OR Tambo airport on high-quality bitumen roads. The location of the Project is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Location of the Project

The project benefits from the advanced national infrastructure such as road, rail and air links with two local airports. Phalaborwa town has significant support services of use to the Project, including engineering and technical services. The site has a full suite of infrastructure that will service the Project including: access control, offices, stores, workshops, laboratory, power and water supply.

4.      Mineral Resource

The phosphogypsum residue resource to be processed at the Project is contained in two separate stacks, Stack A and Stack B as shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Google images of the Bosveld stacks. Right: the position of the stacks in relation to the Phalaborwa mining complex and town. Left: close-up of the stacks annotated as A and B

Rainbow completed a drilling program on the stacks in December 2020 consisting of 1,056m over 72 holes which produced 702 samples that were analysed at SGS Laboratories in Johannesburg. The results from this are the basis for the mineral resource estimate presented in Table 4.

The mineral resource estimate for the Bosveld phosphogypsum REE Stacks A and B is presented in Table 4. The resource has been estimated by the independent Competent Person and is classified as an Inferred Resource based on the guidelines defined in JORC 2012. The in-situ dry bulk density has been re-assessed following further drilling carried out in 2022 and the overall tonnage set out in Table 4 has been amended compared to the resource initially reported in June 2021.

Table 4: Mineral Resource Estimate for the Bosveld Phosphogypsum Stacks

Reported at 0.2% TREO cut-off grade. No constraining shell required as stacks above ground level. Adequate processing test work completed to satisfy RPEEE.

5.      Process Development and Test Work

The recovery of rare earths from phosphogypsum arising as a residue from phosphoric acid production has been the subject of international research for many years. The extraction and recovery of rare earths (REEs) at Phalaborwa has been investigated since the early 1980's by Fedmis, Mintek and later, briefly, by Bosveld Phosphates.

Rainbow acquired access to the Phalaborwa phosphogypsum stacks in 2020 and initiated a test work program to support a technically and economically feasible flow sheet for rare earths extraction.

The test work program was established and managed by Rainbow and conducted at: ANSTO Minerals in Sydney Australia, SGS Laboratories in Johannesburg South Africa and K-Tech's laboratory in Florida USA.

The test program culminated in a technically and economically feasible flowsheet which is the basis of this PEA.

6.      Reclamation, Processing and Stacking of Phosphogypsum

Phosphogypsum residue is hydraulically reclaimed from the stacks and pumped to the process plant for trash and coarse waste removal delivering a feed to the process plant of 2.2 Mt/a dry solids equivalent. The screened slurry is thickened and filtered, with the reclaimed water being neutralised and recycled as process water.

The dewatered solids are treated to remove impurities.

The phosphogypsum is then delivered to a counter current leach circuit for extraction of rare earth elements using sulfuric acid. The filtered leach residue is conveyed to one of two new, HDPE lined residue disposal stacks.

The pregnant leach solution for the rare earth leach is pumped to a rapid consolidation circuit for primary rare earth concentration, prior to the refinery section, and acid recovery to the counter-current leach circuit.

The rare earth refining circuit combines ion exchange, chromatography, nanofiltration, precipitation and calcining to produce three saleable separated rare earth oxide products: neodymium/praseodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide at an average production rate of 1,848 t/a. The remainder of the rare earth basket is stored for future consideration as an intermediate salt.

A simplified block flow diagram (BFD) is shown in Figure 1.3.

Figure 1.3: Simplified Process Block Flow Diagram

7.      Environmental & Social Impact

The Project will be constructed on an existing industrialised site without impacting land use. No new infrastructure is required outside of the existing property. Rehabilitation of some previously disturbed land will be accelerated during the project.

The Project will play a crucial role in environmental remediation and improvement as well as providing economic and social benefits:

·    Polluted water on the existing stacks, in the existing ponds and in the groundwater will be neutralised and used as process water.

·    Seepage of polluted water from the unlined existing stacks will be eliminated and the residue phosphogypsum from the process will be placed on new lined stacks.

·    It is anticipated that a significant proportion of the residual phosphogypsum will be sold for agricultural and industrial use and removed from site. The beneficial economic impact of this has not been included in the PEA.

Rainbow will work closely with previous owners of the property to accelerate the rehabilitation of unused areas in accordance with the closure plans and funding already in place.

The project will create numerous employment opportunities during construction and c. 300 direct job opportunities (excluding contractors, suppliers, vendors, consultants etc.). Priority will be given to the people in the Ba-Phalaborwa area with the requisite skills and experience for these jobs.

Rainbow will give preference to local contractors and where contractors are imported from other areas, Rainbow will encourage the employment of local labour.

8.      Rare Earths Market

The project will be a significant producer of separated Neodymium/Praseodymium, Dysprosium, and Terbium oxides which are expected to represent 98% of the total rare earth market value by 2030, up from 92% in 2020.

The demand for these four magnet rare earth metals, which are required in electric vehicles and offshore wind turbines, is forecast to grow as global pressure to decarbonise increases. Growth in electric vehicle demand is expected to increase by 22.4% per annum between 2020 and 2030, from a 1.5% passenger vehicle market penetration in 2020 to 45% by 2040. Global demand for direct drive wind turbines is expected to grow at approximately 25% per annum between 2020 and 2030, further driving the demand for rare earth metals.

As a result, Argus is forecasting strong compound annual growth rates for the Magnet Rare Earth Metals over the next decade (Nd 6.4%, Pr 6.7%, Dy 7.4% and Tb 33.4%) as shown below:

Highlighting the urgency for near-term production of rare earths from new sources, Argus is forecasting a 25% supply deficit by 2030 from existing projects. Analysts are forecasting that this supply deficit will drive strengthening prices for the magnet rare earth oxides over the next decade.

Argus undertook a market review for Rainbow in January 2022 and provided price forecasts for individual rare earth oxide products, which Rainbow has converted into a weighted average basket price for Phalaborwa. Price forecasts have indicated that the Phalaborwa product basket price will increase from around US$139/kg in 2022 to US$227/kg in 2030.