Ruffer Investment Company Limited Fund Data

June brought two important developments. First, new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a more hawkish than expected message, contributing to a rise in government bond yields. Second, a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran triggered a sharp reversal in oil prices. The decline in geopolitical anxiety encouraged investors to broaden their exposure beyond the narrow group of AI beneficiaries that had previously led markets. The result was an unusual mix of rising bond yields and an equity market rally, as investors became more optimistic about growth whilst demanding higher compensation for inflation and policy risks. Performance was marginally negative over the month, with some of the protection assets losing value as volatility retraced, and some of the contrarian growth exposure continuing to decline. The largest positive contribution came from our increased US dollar exposure, which benefited from the upward re-pricing of US interest rates. Bonds made positive contributions, helped by our tactical additions to five year gilts and ten year US TIPS as yields spiked in April. In June, we rotated some of the long-dated inflation-linked gilts into TIPS, reducing UK-specific risk whilst improving liquidity. Headwinds came primarily from the portfolio's gold mining equities as higher real yields and the firmer dollar weighed on precious metals. Whilst some of the fund's equities performed well, the allocation to software and China technology suffered, as AI victims. The fund's energy equities also fell with crude oil prices. During the month, we increased our position in LVMH, a global luxury company that should benefit from the wealth effect from AI-related export profits in Asia. We also took the opportunity to reduce the fund's yen exposure, acknowledging the near-term headwinds if the Fed keeps rates higher. The tentative market broadening beyond AI capex beneficiaries is encouraging and supports our preference for less crowded areas. We are focused on areas where expectations are low, valuations are supportive and the asymmetry is attractive. Yet the Fed meeting underscored that stronger nominal growth may come with higher yields, stickier inflation and less policy support than markets would like. The AI capex boom is supporting growth, earnings and asset prices in the near term, but history suggests periods of concentrated investment often sow the seeds of their own reversal. So we remain reluctant to chase current momentum and favour more attractively valued AI exposure in both the US and China, whilst our Japanese equities are enjoying the East Asian hardware boom. We believe both conventional and unconventional forms of protection are required. If the AI investment cycle were to disappoint, the resulting growth shock would likely be deflationary, creating a more favourable backdrop for duration. However, if growth continues to broaden and inflationary pressures build, conventional bonds may not provide effective diversification, so derivative strategies remain an important component of investor toolkits. Our objective is not to predict precisely how the current cycle evolves but to construct a portfolio which can both participate in the opportunities it creates and preserve capital if the market narrative reverses. Given more volatile inflation, periodic geopolitical shocks and highly concentrated markets, we believe resilience is the most important portfolio characteristic.

June brought two important developments. First, new Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a more hawkish than expected message, contributing to a rise in government bond yields. Second, a Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran triggered a sharp reversal in oil prices. The decline in geopolitical anxiety encouraged investors to broaden their exposure beyond the narrow group of AI beneficiaries that had previously led markets. The result was an unusual mix of rising bond yields and an equity market rally, as investors became more optimistic about growth whilst demanding higher compensation for inflation and policy risks. Performance was marginally negative over the month, with some of the protection assets losing value as volatility retraced, and some of the contrarian growth exposure continuing to decline. The largest positive contribution came from our increased US dollar exposure, which benefited from the upward re-pricing of US interest rates. Bonds made positive contributions, helped by our tactical additions to five year gilts and ten year US TIPS as yields spiked in April. In June, we rotated some of the long-dated inflation-linked gilts into TIPS, reducing UK-specific risk whilst improving liquidity. Headwinds came primarily from the portfolio's gold mining equities as higher real yields and the firmer dollar weighed on precious metals. Whilst some of the fund's equities performed well, the allocation to software and China technology suffered, as AI victims. The fund's energy equities also fell with crude oil prices. During the month, we increased our position in LVMH, a global luxury company that should benefit from the wealth effect from AI-related export profits in Asia. We also took the opportunity to reduce the fund's yen exposure, acknowledging the near-term headwinds if the Fed keeps rates higher. The tentative market broadening beyond AI capex beneficiaries is encouraging and supports our preference for less crowded areas. We are focused on areas where expectations are low, valuations are supportive and the asymmetry is attractive. Yet the Fed meeting underscored that stronger nominal growth may come with higher yields, stickier inflation and less policy support than markets would like. The AI capex boom is supporting growth, earnings and asset prices in the near term, but history suggests periods of concentrated investment often sow the seeds of their own reversal. So we remain reluctant to chase current momentum and favour more attractively valued AI exposure in both the US and China, whilst our Japanese equities are enjoying the East Asian hardware boom. We believe both conventional and unconventional forms of protection are required. If the AI investment cycle were to disappoint, the resulting growth shock would likely be deflationary, creating a more favourable backdrop for duration. However, if growth continues to broaden and inflationary pressures build, conventional bonds may not provide effective diversification, so derivative strategies remain an important component of investor toolkits. Our objective is not to predict precisely how the current cycle evolves but to construct a portfolio which can both participate in the opportunities it creates and preserve capital if the market narrative reverses. Given more volatile inflation, periodic geopolitical shocks and highly concentrated markets, we believe resilience is the most important portfolio characteristic.