Group Chief Financial Officer's review continued

•  Operating expenses were up 5 per cent, and up 3 per cent on a constant currency basis, reflecting an increase in performance-related pay accruals and sustained increased investment into transformational digital initiatives. The cost-to-income ratio excluding DVA decreased 1 percentage point to 69 per cent

•  Credit impairment declined by $246 million to $107 million. There was a $30 million charge in stage 1 and 2 impairment including a $25 million release of the judgemental management overlay relating to stage 1 and 2 loans. Impairment of stage 3 assets of $77 million were down $167 million, with no significant new exposures in the quarter, and included a $12 million charge in relation to the IFRS9 interest income catch-up adjustment and a $21 million increase in the management overlay relating to stage 3. The management overlay was broadly stable in the quarter and now totals $306 million

•  Other impairment increased by $20 million with a $35 million charge in the quarter, mainly relating to the aviation lease portfolio

•  Profit from associates and joint ventures was down 38 per cent to $46 million, reflecting the reduction in the Group's shareholding in China Bohai Bank from 19.99 per cent to 16.26 per cent

•  Charges relating to restructuring, goodwill impairment and other items decreased $231 million to $79 million, with higher restructuring costs more than offsetting a non-repeat of $231 million goodwill impairment primarily relating to UAE booked in 3Q'20

•  Taxation was $229 million on a statutory basis, with an underlying year-to-date effective tax rate of 23.5 per cent, down from the prior year rate of 31.3 per cent, reflecting a change in the geographic mix of profits and higher profits diluting the impact of non-deductible costs

•  Underlying return on tangible equity increased by 270 basis points to 7.1 per cent due to higher profits partly offset by increased tangible equity, reflecting the net impact of profit accretion partly offset by shareholder distributions

Operating income by product

1 Comparisons presented on the basis of the current period's transactional currency rate, ensuring like-for-like currency rates between the two periods

2  Not meaningful

Following an organisational restructure that came into effect on 1 January 2021, the Group's Financial Markets business has been expanded and reorganised, with the Group integrating the majority of its Corporate Finance business within Financial Markets. The remaining elements of the Group's Corporate Finance business - primarily M&A Advisory - have been transferred into Lending & Portfolio Management.

Transaction Banking income was down 3 per cent. Cash Management declined 16 per cent as double-digit volume growth and increased fee income was more than offset by margin compression due to the lower interest rate environment despite repricing initiatives. Trade increased 18 per cent primarily due to double-digit growth in balances.

Page 4
 

Group Chief Financial Officer's review continued

Financial Markets income increased 11 per cent or 4 per cent excluding DVA and the impact of the IFRS9 interest income catch-up adjustment. Macro Trading increased 4 per cent with higher Foreign Exchange (FX) and Commodities income partly offset by lower Rates income. Credit Markets income increased 13 per cent with Financing Solutions & Issuance benefiting from growth in origination and distribution activities along with the IFRS9 income adjustments. Structured Finance was up 54 per cent due to trading and other gains within Aviation Finance, while negative movements in XVA resulted in Financing & Security Services income reducing by 21 per cent.

Lending and Portfolio Management income was up 23 per cent with half of the growth due to the impact of the IFRS9 interest income catch-up adjustment. Underlying growth of 11 per cent reflected a doubling of fee income, primarily from M&A Advisory and higher margins.

Wealth Management was down 2 per cent, primarily due to a $53 million accelerated recognition of an annual Bancassurance bonus in 3Q'20 which was not repeated in 3Q'21. This resulted in a 15 per cent decline in Bancassurance income, which is currently around a quarter of total Wealth Management income. Excluding Bancassurance, Wealth Management underlying growth was 3 per cent, with double-digit growth in Funds, Structured Notes and Wealth Lending.

Retail Products income reduced 4 per cent on a reported basis and was down 5 per cent on a constant currency basis. Deposits income declined 32 per cent as margin compression more than offset increased volumes and improved balance sheet mix. Balance sheet growth and increased margins led to 23 per cent growth across Mortgages & Auto and a 24 per cent increase in Other Retail Products. Credit Cards & Personal Loans income increased 2 per cent with improved personal loan margins and increased fees.

Treasury income more than tripled to $149 million, with two-thirds of the increase from higher net interest income. The remaining increase is primarily due to a non-repeat of prior period negative movements in hedge ineffectiveness.

Underlying profit before tax by client segment and geographic region

1  Comparisons presented on the basis of the current period's transactional currency rate, ensuring like-for-like currency rates between the two periods

2  Not meaningful

Following an organisational restructure that came into effect on 1 January 2021, the new structure results in the creation of two new client segments: Corporate, Commercial & Institutional Banking, serving larger companies and institutions, and Consumer, Private & Business Banking, serving individual and business banking clients. From a regional perspective, Greater China & North Asia and ASEAN & South Asia have been combined to form a single Asia region.

Corporate, Commercial & Institutional Banking profit increased 67 per cent, due to lower credit impairment and income growth. Income increased 9 per cent, or 3 per cent excluding the impact of IFRS9 interest income catch-up adjustment and movements in DVA.

Consumer, Private & Business Banking profit decreased 13 per cent reflecting lower income and increased expenses driven by investment in digital initiatives offset by lower impairment. Adjusting for the $53 million accelerated recognition of an annual Bancassurance bonus in 3Q'20, income increased 1 per cent and profits increased 6 per cent.

Central & other items (segment) losses reduced by approximately a quarter to $52 million with income up $96 million on the back of stronger Treasury performance, partly offset by lower Associates profit share as well as increased expenses and impairment.

Asia profits increased 13 per cent with a 5 per cent increase in income and $73 million lower credit impairment more than offset by a 4 per cent increase in expenses. The benefit from the IFRS9 interest income catch-up was broadly offset by the non-repeat of the accelerated recognition of an annual Bancassurance bonus in 3Q'20. There was double-digit income growth in India, China, South Korea and Singapore while Hong Kong income was flat.

Africa & Middle East profits increased from $11 million to $222 million primarily due to a $119 million reduction in impairment. Income was up 11 per cent and increased 4 per cent excluding the benefit of the IFRS9 income adjustment while costs increased 6 per cent.

Europe & Americas income increased 22 per cent, with strong double-digit growth in Financial Markets, which along with $23 million lower impairment, resulted in profits increasing more than four-fold.

Page 5
 

Group Chief Financial Officer's review continued

Central & other items (region) recorded a loss of $235 million with increased expenses reflecting an increase in performance-related pay accruals and an increase in investment spend in digital ventures while income declined $36 million due to lower returns paid to Treasury on the equity provided to the regions in a lower interest rate environment.

Adjusted net interest income and margin

1 Variance is better/(worse) other than assets and liabilities which is increase/(decrease)

2 Adjusted net interest income is statutory net interest income less funding costs for the trading book and financial guarantee fees on interest-earning assets

3 Change is the basis points (bps) difference between the two periods rather than the percentage change

4 Adjusted net interest income divided by average interest-earning assets, annualised

Adjusted net interest income increased 7 per cent and 1 per cent excluding the benefit of a $96 million IFRS9 interest income catch-up adjustment. On a headline basis, adjusted net interest income was up 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter but was flat excluding the IFRS9 income adjustment (2Q'21: $73 million). The net interest margin on a headline basis was flat year-on-year and up 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter. Excluding the IFRS9 income adjustment, net interest margin on a normalised basis was 116 basis points in the third quarter, down 7 basis points year-on-year and down 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter:

•  Average interest-earning assets were flat in the quarter, with reduced balances in Treasury Markets offsetting growth in Mortgages, Wealth Management and Trade. Gross yields declined 2 basis points compared with the average in the prior quarter, and were down 4 basis points excluding the impact of the IFRS9 income adjustment, reflecting the impact of further falls in HIBOR and a shift from credit cards to lower yielding personal loans

•  Average interest-bearing liabilities declined 1 per cent in the quarter. The deposit mix continued to improve with a reduction in Retail Products time deposits and growth in corporate operating accounts. The rate paid on liabilities decreased 3 basis points compared with the average in the prior quarter, reflecting interest rate movements, repricing initiatives and improvement in the liability mix

Credit risk summary

Income statement

1 Variance is increase/(decrease) comparing current reporting period to prior reporting periods

Page 6
 

Group Chief Financial Officer's review continued

Balance sheet

1 Variance is increase/(decrease) comparing current reporting period to prior reporting periods

2 Includes reverse repurchase agreements and other similar secured lending held at amortised cost of $8,836 million at 30 September 2021, $4,584 million at 30 June 2021, $2,919 million at 31 December 2020 and $4,330 million at 30 September 2020

3 Change is the percentage points difference between the two points rather than the percentage change

While credit risk remains elevated, we have seen improvements in a number of metrics with high-risk assets lower for the fifth successive quarter, and the overall portfolio remains stable and resilient. The Group is well-positioned to support our clients as economies recover but continues to remain vigilant to the continued impact of COVID-19 including vaccination progress and the likelihood of uneven economic recovery across markets and industries.

Credit impairment was a $107 million charge in the quarter, with a $30 million charge relating to stage 1 and 2 impairment and a $77 million charge relating to stage 3 impairment.

The $30 million charge in stage 1 and 2 impairment reflects the impact of a sovereign ratings downgrade in one of our smaller markets and changes in the macroeconomic variables used in the expected credit loss (ECL) models partly offset by a $25 million release of the judgemental stage 1 and 2 management overlay. The management overlay relating to stage 1 and 2 assets totals $277 million as at 30 September 2021.

Stage 3 impairment of $77 million primarily relate to charge-offs within Consumer, Private & Business Banking (CPBB) with no significant new exposures within Corporate, Commercial & Institutional Banking (CCIB) in the quarter. There was a $12 million charge relating to the catch-up of interest earned on historically impaired assets and a $21 million increase in the management overlay of stage 3 assets in CPBB, to a total overlay of $29 million.

Gross stage 3 loans and advances to customers of $8.2 billion were 10 per cent lower compared to 30 June 2021, primarily due to repayments and write-offs more than offsetting new inflows, which were 87 per cent lower in CCIB, compared to the previous quarter. Credit-impaired loans represented 2.7 per cent of gross loans and advances, a decrease of 32 basis points compared
to 30 June 2021.

The stage 3 cover ratio of 57 per cent was up 2 percentage points compared with the position as at 30 June 2021, and the cover ratio post collateral at 77 per cent also increased by 2 percentage points, both benefiting from significant repayments on stage 3 assets with low levels of provisions.

Credit grade 12 balances have increased by $0.5 billion since 30 June 2021, mainly due to the sovereign ratings downgrade partly offset by client upgrades and repayments.

Early Alert accounts of $7.5 billion have reduced by $1.5 billion since 30 June 2021, reflecting the net impact of downgrades into credit grade 12 including the sovereign ratings downgrade, exposure reductions and regularisations of accounts back into non-high-risk categories. Excluding the Aviation sector, Early Alert accounts are now broadly in-line with pre-COVID-19 levels. The Group is continuing to monitor its exposures in the Aviation, Metals & Mining and Oil & Gas sectors particularly carefully, given the unusual stresses caused by the effects of COVID-19, as well as its exposure to Commercial Real Estate, which, with a total exposure of $18.5 billion is just 6 per cent of the Group's total loans and advances to customers. The recent rises in commodity prices have eased credit pressure for certain sectors.

The proportion of investment grade corporate exposures has increased by 5 percentage points since 30 June 2021 to 68 per cent.

Page 7
 

Group Chief Financial Officer's review continued

Restructuring, goodwill impairment and other items

The Group's statutory performance is adjusted for profits or losses of a capital nature, amounts consequent to investment transactions driven by strategic intent, other infrequent and/or exceptional transactions that are significant or material in the context of the Group's normal business earnings for the period and items which management and investors would ordinarily identify separately when assessing underlying performance period by period.

Restructuring charges of $99 million primarily relate to the discontinued Principal Finance business, redundancies, and impairment on property as the Group adapts to new ways of working post-pandemic. Other items include a $20 million fair-value gain relating to a SC Ventures investment.

Balance sheet and liquidity

1 Variance is increase/(decrease)comparing current reporting period to prior reporting periods

2 The Group now excludes $16,986 million held with central banks (30.06.21: $16,213 million, 31.12.20: $14,296 million, 30.09.20: $14,363 million) that has been confirmed as repayable at the point of stress

The Group's balance sheet remains strong, liquid and well diversified:

•  Loans and advances to customers increased 2 per cent since 30 June 2021 to $302 billion despite the impact of adverse FX movements. The majority of the growth was due to growth in Financial Markets. Underlying growth in Retail Mortgage balances was predominately offset by negative FX movements, while the completion of loan syndications in progress at 30 June 2021 led to a reduction in the corporate lending book

•  Customer accounts of $453 billion increased 3 per cent since 30 June 2021, primarily driven by an increase in corporate operating account balances while retail deposits remained broadly stable despite being negatively impacted by FX movements

•  Other assets increased 4 per cent since 30 June 2021 with increased unsettled trade balances, balances at central banks and investment securities. Other liabilities increased 2 per cent from increased repurchase agreements, partly offset by a reduction in issued debt securities

The advances-to-deposits ratio reduced to 61.9 per cent from 64.0 per cent at 30 June 2021, reflecting the strong growth in customer accounts in the quarter. The point-in-time liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) decreased 1 percentage point to 145 per cent and remains well above the minimum regulatory requirement of 100 per cent.

Page 8
 

Group Chief Financial Officer's review continued

Risk-weighted assets

1 Variance is increase/(decrease) comparing current reporting period to prior reporting periods

Total risk-weighted assets (RWA) decreased 5 per cent or $12.7 billion since 30 June 2021 to $267.6 billion:

•  Credit risk RWA decreased by $9.7 billion in the third quarter to $219.6 billion, with asset growth more than offset by the benefit of model upgrades relating to Korea personal loans, improvements in asset quality including actions concerning specific stage 3 exposures, the impact of lower RWA density and FX

•  Operational risk RWA remained unchanged at $27.1 billion

•  Market risk RWA decreased by $3.0 billion to $20.8 billion due to reduced internal models approach (IMA) positions and charges for IMA risks not in value at risk (VaR)

Capital base and ratios

1 Variance is increase/(decrease) comparing current reporting period to prior reporting periods

2 Change is percentage points difference between two points rather than percentage change

The Group's CET1 ratio of 14.6 per cent was 51 basis points higher than at 30 June 2021, 4.6 percentage points above the Group's current regulatory minimum of 10.0 per cent and above the 13-14 per cent medium-term target range.

The primary driver of the increase in the CET1 ratio was the decrease in RWA, principally from favourable model changes, asset quality improvements, a reduction in RWA density and lower market risk RWA, which in aggregate resulted in an increase in the CET1 ratio of approximately 60 basis points. Profits in the quarter contributed approximately 30 basis points of CET1 accretion in the quarter.

There was a 3 basis points increase in the value of the revised treatment of software assets in CET1, reflecting an increase in capitalised software assets. The total benefit to CET1 from the revised treatment of software assets is now 34 basis points. The Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA) has confirmed that qualifying software assets will be deducted from CET1 from 1 January 2022.

The Group spent $251 million purchasing 40 million ordinary shares of $0.50 each, representing a volume-weighted average price per share of £4.54. These shares were subsequently cancelled, reducing the total issued share capital by 1.3 per cent and the CET1 ratio by 9 basis points.

The Group is accruing a foreseeable dividend in respect of the final 2021 ordinary share dividend in the third quarter. This is not an indication of the Group's final 2021 ordinary share dividend, which will be proposed by the Board at the presentation of the 2021 full-year results.

The Group's Pillar 2A requirement is expected to increase in the fourth quarter by a total of 38 basis points, of which 22 basis points must be held in CET1. Accordingly, the Group's minimum CET1 requirement is expected to increase to 10.2 per cent from 10.0 per cent.

The Group will also be subject to a regulatory change in the treatment of structural FX risk in the fourth quarter. Structural FX risk is currently assessed through the Group's Pillar 2A requirement. The PRA has clarified that this should be a Pillar 1 requirement and therefore requires the Group to risk-weight its unhedged structural FX positions. The Group currently expects this change to result in between $3 billion to $4 billion of additional market risk RWA in the fourth quarter post hedging which would reduce the CET1 ratio by between 15 and 20 basis points on a pro-forma basis. The Group may benefit from a subsequent reduction in its Pillar 2A requirement reflecting the move of structural FX risk from Pillar 2A to Pillar 1.

The Group's UK leverage ratio of 5.1 per cent is slightly lower than the 5.2 per cent ratio as at 30 June 2021. The Group's leverage ratio remains significantly above its minimum requirement of 3.7 per cent.

Page 9
 

Group Chief Financial Officer's review continued

Outlook

The economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has continued to be uneven and punctuated by supply-chain disruption. However, we are encouraged by robust levels of export growth across many of our markets in Asia. Against this backdrop:

•  We continue to expect FY'21 income to be similar to that achieved in FY'20 on a constant currency basis, with 4Q'21 being sequentially lower, reflecting seasonality comparable to prior years, and normalising for the IFRS9 interest income adjustment. Strong underlying business momentum throughout 2021 should enable income growth to return to our 5-7% guidance range from FY'22

•  We continue to expect FY'21 operating expenses, including the impact of currency translation and performance-related pay, to be at or below $10.4 billion

•  Excluding the impact of any unforeseeable events, we expect credit impairment to remain at low levels in 4Q'21

•  We expect FY'21 CET1 to be around the top of the 13-14 per cent target range on a pro-forma basis, excluding software relief

Andy Halford

Group Chief Financial Officer
2 November 2021

Page 10