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Global stock markets increased modestly in June, with the MSCI All Country World Net Total Return Index up +0.8% and the US S&P 500 up +0.7%. Sentiment was dented by a more cautious tone from the Federal Reserve (Fed) following the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting chaired by its new head Kevin Warsh. This was partly offset by easing tensions in the Middle East and lower oil prices. European equities fared better, with the DJ Euro Stoxx 600 Index up +2.0% (all figures in sterling terms). Economic data remained fairly supportive through the month. The US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, comfortably beating expectations of 88,000, following an upwardly revised gain of 179,000 in April. Revisions to the March and April job figures added a combined 93,000 jobs to earlier estimates, underlining how resilient the US economy remains. The conflict in the Middle East pushed up inflationary pressures in the near term. The headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 4.2% year-on-year (y/y) in May, largely due to higher energy prices – the highest reading since April 2023. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy costs, rose more moderately, to 2.9% y/y. The price of Brent crude oil fell 18.1% in June to $73 a barrel after the US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding, easing concerns over possible disruption to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. While the agreement started a 60-day negotiation period covering Iran's nuclear programme and regional security, geopolitical uncertainty and market swings are likely to stay elevated. The Fed left its main interest rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% for a fourth meeting in a row in June, as expected. However, Warsh struck a more hawkish, cautious tone, reiterating the FOMC's commitment to bringing inflation back under control while removing forward guidance from its policy statement. Updated economic forecasts also pointed to higher inflation and weaker growth, with more policymakers expecting at least one further rate rise this year, reinforcing the view that interest rates are likely to stay higher for longer.